alarm-redist / fifty-states

Redistricting analysis for all 50 U.S. states
https://alarm-redist.github.io/fifty-states/
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2010 West Virginia Congressional Districts #151

Closed mzhao80 closed 1 year ago

mzhao80 commented 1 year ago

Redistricting requirements

[In West Virginia, according to W.V. Const. art. I, § 4, districts must:

  1. be made of contiguous counties
  2. have equal populations
  3. be geographically compact

Interpretation of requirements

We enforce a maximum population deviation of 0.5%. We also merge VTDs into counties and run the simulation at the county level.

Data Sources

Data for West Virginia comes from the ALARM Project's Redistricting Data Files.

Pre-processing Notes

No manual pre-processing decisions were necessary.

Simulation Notes

We sample 5,000 districting plans for West Virginia across 4 independent runs of the SMC algorithm. No special techniques were needed to produce the sample.

Validation

validation_20221224_1551

SMC: 5,000 sampled plans of 3 districts on 55 units
`adapt_k_thresh`=0.985 • `seq_alpha`=0.5
`est_label_mult`=1 • `pop_temper`=0
ℹ Preparing WV shapefile
Plan diversity 80% range: 0.35 to 0.79
ℹ Preparing WV shapefile
R-hat values for summary statistics:
   pop_overlap      total_vap       plan_dev      comp_edge    comp_polsby      pop_white      pop_black 
      1.004724       1.000832       1.000995       1.001041       1.000643       1.002544       1.001706 
      pop_hisp       pop_aian      pop_asian       pop_nhpi      pop_other        pop_two      vap_white 
      1.002082       1.002052       1.001623       1.001914       1.002869       1.002047       1.001106 
     vap_black       vap_hisp       vap_aian      vap_asian       vap_nhpi      vap_other        vap_two 
      1.002101       1.002102       1.002717       1.001718       1.002812       1.001806       1.002128 
pre_16_rep_tru pre_16_dem_cli pre_20_rep_tru pre_20_dem_bid uss_18_rep_mor uss_18_dem_man uss_20_rep_cap 
      1.001844       1.001648       1.002676       1.001055       1.001482       1.002323       1.001800 
uss_20_dem_swe gov_16_rep_col gov_16_dem_jus gov_20_rep_jus gov_20_dem_sal atg_16_rep_mor atg_16_dem_rey 
      1.001373       1.002377       1.001429       1.000963       1.001869       1.001814       1.001415 
atg_20_rep_mor atg_20_dem_pet sos_16_rep_war sos_16_dem_ten sos_20_rep_war sos_20_dem_ten         adv_16 
      1.001877       1.002013       1.002063       1.001841       1.001600       1.002364       1.001554 
        adv_18         adv_20         arv_16         arv_18         arv_20            ndv            nrv 
      1.002323       1.001434       1.002321       1.001482       1.002170       1.003138       1.002296 
       ndshare          e_dvs         pr_dem          e_dem          pbias           egap 
      1.002266       1.002608       1.002071       1.000032       1.003598       1.000091 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 1 of 4 (1,250 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     1,224 (97.9%)      2.4%        0.29   787 (100%)      4 
Split 2     1,208 (96.7%)      1.0%        0.35   682 ( 86%)      3 
Resample    1,085 (86.8%)       NA%        0.36 1,068 (135%)     NA 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 2 of 4 (1,250 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     1,223 (97.9%)      2.5%        0.30   777 ( 98%)      4 
Split 2     1,219 (97.5%)      1.0%        0.30   694 ( 88%)      3 
Resample    1,134 (90.7%)       NA%        0.32 1,078 (136%)     NA 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 3 of 4 (1,250 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     1,223 (97.9%)      2.4%        0.30   770 ( 97%)      4 
Split 2     1,214 (97.1%)      1.0%        0.32   684 ( 87%)      3 
Resample    1,116 (89.3%)       NA%        0.34 1,083 (137%)     NA 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 4 of 4 (1,250 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     1,224 (97.9%)      2.4%        0.29   784 ( 99%)      4 
Split 2     1,217 (97.3%)      1.0%        0.30   696 ( 88%)      3 
Resample    1,125 (90.0%)       NA%        0.33 1,077 (136%)     NA 

•  Watch out for low effective samples, very low acceptance rates (less than 1%), large std. devs. of the log
weights (more than 3 or so), and low numbers of unique plans. R-hat values for summary statistics should be
between 1 and 1.05.

Checklist

@CoryMcCartan

CoryMcCartan commented 1 year ago

Thank you!