alarm-redist / fifty-states

Redistricting analysis for all 50 U.S. states
https://alarm-redist.github.io/fifty-states/
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2010 Oklahoma Congressional Districts #174

Closed philipwosull closed 1 year ago

philipwosull commented 1 year ago

Redistricting requirements

In Oklahoma, districts must:

  1. be contiguous
  2. have equal populations

Algorithmic Constraints

We enforce a maximum population deviation of 0.5%.

Data Sources

Data for Oklahoma comes from the ALARM Project's All About Redistricting and the ALARM Project's Redistricting Data Files.

Pre-processing Notes

No manual pre-processing decisions were necessary.

Simulation Notes

We sample 10,000 districting plans for Oklahoma via two independent runs of 5,000 each. No special techniques were needed to produce the sample.

Validation

validation_20230208_2001

SMC: 10,000 sampled plans of 5 districts on 2,151 units
`adapt_k_thresh`=0.985 • `seq_alpha`=0.5
`est_label_mult`=1 • `pop_temper`=0

Plan diversity 80% range: 0.56 to 0.88

R-hat values for summary statistics:
   pop_overlap      total_vap       plan_dev      comp_edge    comp_polsby      pop_white      pop_black       pop_hisp       pop_aian 
     1.0027973      1.0013874      0.9999491      1.0018459      1.0008178      1.0019665      1.0002424      1.0001877      1.0008727 
     pop_asian       pop_nhpi      pop_other        pop_two      vap_white      vap_black       vap_hisp       vap_aian      vap_asian 
     1.0003430      1.0009853      1.0026425      1.0014192      1.0013892      1.0003048      1.0011146      1.0011400      1.0005652 
      vap_nhpi      vap_other        vap_two pre_16_rep_tru pre_16_dem_cli pre_20_rep_tru pre_20_dem_bid uss_16_rep_lan uss_16_dem_wor 
     1.0014140      1.0018056      1.0026059      1.0006817      1.0010457      1.0013962      1.0017259      1.0003023      1.0006715 
uss_20_rep_inh uss_20_dem_bro gov_18_rep_sti gov_18_dem_edm atg_18_rep_hun atg_18_dem_myl         adv_16         adv_18         adv_20 
     1.0010858      1.0014671      1.0013107      1.0013198      1.0008813      1.0011188      1.0007534      1.0012572      1.0016321 
        arv_16         arv_18         arv_20  county_splits    muni_splits            ndv            nrv        ndshare          e_dvs 
     1.0008248      1.0015668      1.0012181      1.0086697      1.0003711      1.0013360      1.0011584      1.0014808      1.0014225 
        pr_dem          e_dem          pbias           egap 
     1.0000000      1.0002674      1.0025347      1.0040958 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 1 of 2 (5,000 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     4,922 (98.4%)      7.4%        0.25 3,159 (100%)     12 
Split 2     4,807 (96.1%)     12.3%        0.38 3,149 (100%)      7 
Split 3     4,721 (94.4%)     14.8%        0.45 3,061 ( 97%)      5 
Split 4     4,658 (93.2%)      7.8%        0.49 2,793 ( 88%)      3 
Resample    3,418 (68.4%)       NA%        0.48 3,998 (126%)     NA 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 2 of 2 (5,000 samples)
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1     4,921 (98.4%)      9.2%        0.25 3,161 (100%)     10 
Split 2     4,825 (96.5%)     14.1%        0.38 3,120 ( 99%)      6 
Split 3     4,708 (94.2%)     18.3%        0.45 3,074 ( 97%)      4 
Split 4     4,488 (89.8%)      7.7%        0.54 2,795 ( 88%)      3 
Resample    2,001 (40.0%)       NA%        0.52 3,843 (122%)     NA

Checklist

@tylersimko

tylersimko commented 1 year ago

Thanks @philipwosull !! Looks great to me.