2010 Colorado Congressional Districts

kevpwang commented 1 year ago

Redistricting requirements

In Colorado, districts must, under Article V, Section 47 of the 2016 Colorado Revised Statutes:

be contiguous
have equal populations
be geographically compact
preserve county and municipality boundaries as much as possible
preserve whole communities of interest

Algorithmic Constraints

We enforce a maximum population deviation of 0.5%. We use a pseudo-county constraint described below which attempts to mimic the norms in Colorado of generally preserving county, city, and township boundaries.

Data Sources

Data for Colorado comes from the ALARM Project's 2020 Redistricting Data Files.

Pre-processing Notes

No manual pre-processing decisions were necessary.

Simulation Notes

We sample 10,000 districting plans for Colorado across two independent runs of the SMC algorithm, and then thin the sample down to 5,000 plans. To balance county and municipality splits, we create pseudocounties for use in the county constraint, which leads to fewer municipality splits than using a county constraint. Note that Adams, Arapahoe, El Paso, and Jefferson Counties and the city of Denver must be split due to their large populations, although within the counties, we avoid splitting any municipality.

Validation

validation_20230217_0203

SMC: 5,000 sampled plans of 7 districts on 3,250 units
`adapt_k_thresh`=0.985 • `seq_alpha`=0.5      
`est_label_mult`=1 • `pop_temper`=0           
ℹ Computing summary statistics for KY_cd_2010
Plan diversity 80% range: 0.66 to 0.91        
ℹ Computing summary statistics for KY_cd_2010
R-hat values for summary statistics:
   pop_overlap      total_vap       plan_dev      comp_edge    comp_polsby      pop_white      pop_black 
      1.006377       1.006937       1.002028       1.016815       1.009712       1.018507       1.017929 
      pop_hisp       pop_aian      pop_asian       pop_nhpi      pop_other        pop_two      vap_white 
      1.016279       1.010191       1.003543       1.008819       1.014266       1.016255       1.019462 
     vap_black       vap_hisp       vap_aian      vap_asian       vap_nhpi      vap_other        vap_two 
      1.017592       1.015483       1.003558       1.005483       1.009457       1.011594       1.013315 
pre_16_dem_cli pre_16_rep_tru pre_20_dem_bid pre_20_rep_tru uss_16_dem_ben uss_16_rep_gle uss_20_dem_hic 
      1.009906       1.015757       1.006835       1.015330       1.010325       1.016543       1.009336 
uss_20_rep_gar gov_18_dem_pol gov_18_rep_sta atg_18_dem_wei atg_18_rep_bra sos_18_dem_gri sos_18_rep_wil 
      1.017612       1.007915       1.016835       1.009116       1.017840       1.009493       1.017728 
        adv_16         adv_18         adv_20         arv_16         arv_18         arv_20  county_splits 
      1.008877       1.009167       1.007137       1.015574       1.018247       1.016121       1.009032 
   muni_splits            ndv            nrv        ndshare          e_dvs         pr_dem          e_dem 
      1.000496       1.009337       1.015211       1.012969       1.013227       1.001408       1.000369 
         pbias           egap 
      1.017895       1.000223 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 1 of 2       
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1    4,850 (194.0%)     11.0%        0.34 3,137 (199%)      9 
Split 2    4,072 (162.9%)     19.2%        0.44 3,134 (198%)      5 
Split 3    3,552 (142.1%)     21.3%        0.60 2,867 (181%)      4 
Split 4    3,159 (126.4%)     24.9%        0.69 2,722 (172%)      3 
Split 5    2,906 (116.2%)     26.9%        0.78 2,672 (169%)      2 
Split 6    2,580 (103.2%)      9.4%        0.91 2,256 (143%)      2 
Resample      770 (30.8%)       NA%        2.04 1,727 (109%)     NA 

Sampling diagnostics for SMC run 2 of 2       
         Eff. samples (%) Acc. rate Log wgt. sd  Max. unique Est. k 
Split 1    4,850 (194.0%)     10.7%        0.35 3,168 (200%)      9 
Split 2    4,105 (164.2%)     15.7%        0.44 3,129 (198%)      6 
Split 3    3,617 (144.7%)     21.4%        0.58 2,887 (183%)      4 
Split 4    3,232 (129.3%)     24.1%        0.68 2,787 (176%)      3 
Split 5    2,852 (114.1%)     20.7%        0.79 2,600 (165%)      3 
Split 6    2,531 (101.2%)      8.9%        0.90 2,225 (141%)      2 
Resample      642 (25.7%)       NA%        1.95 1,743 (110%)     NA

Checklist

[x] I have followed the instructions
[x] I have updated the tracker
[x] All TODO lines from the template code have been removed
[x] I have merged in the main branch and then recalculated summary statistics
[x] I have run enforce_style() to format my code
[x] The documentation copied above is up-to-date
[x] There are no data files in this pull request
[x] None of the file output paths (for the redist_map and redist_plans objects, and summary statistics) have been edited

@CoryMcCartan

CoryMcCartan commented 1 year ago

NOticing some KY files have sneaked in here. Can you remove them & then git merge main?

Then we should be good to go

kevpwang commented 1 year ago

Ah, good catch—should be okay now.

alarm-redist / fifty-states