Futurists think about time differently, and company strategists could learn from their approach. For any given uncertainty about the future — whether that’s risk, opportunity, or growth — we tend to think in the short- and long-term simultaneously. To do this, I use a framework that measures certainty and charts actions, rather than simply marking the passage of time as quarters or years. That’s why my timelines aren’t actually lines at all — they are cones.
For every foresight project, I build a cone with four distinct categories: (1) tactics, (2) strategy, (3) vision, and (4) systems-level evolution.
I start by defining the cone’s edge, using highly probable events for which there is already data or evidence. The amount of time varies for every project, organization, and industry, but typically 12 to 24 months is a good place to start. Because we can identify trends and probable events (both within a company and external to it), the kind of planning that can be done is tactical in nature, and the corresponding actions could include things like redesigning products or identifying and targeting a new customer segment.
Tactical decisions must fit into an organization’s strategy. At this point in the cone, we are a little less certain of outcomes, because we’re looking at the next 24 months to five years. This area is what’s most familiar to strategy officers and their teams: We’re describing traditional strategy and the direction the organization will take. Our actions include defining priorities, allocating resources, and making any personnel changes needed.
Lots of organizations get stuck cycling between strategy and tactics. While that process might feel like serious planning for the future, it results in a perpetual cycle of trying to catch up: to competitors, to new entrants, and to external sources of disruption.
That’s why you must be willing to accept more uncertainty as you continually recalibrate your organization’s vision for the future. A company’s vision cannot include every detail, because there are still many unknowns. Leaders can articulate a strong vision for 10 to 15 years in the future while being open to iterating on the strategy and tactics categories as they encounter new tech trends, global events, social changes, and economic shifts. In the vision category, we formulate actions based on how the executive leadership will pursue research, where it will make investments, and how it will develop the workforce it will someday need.
But the vision for an organization must also fit into the last category: systems-level disruption that could unfold in the farther future. If executive leaders do not have a strong sense of how their industry must evolve to meet the challenges of new technology, market forces, regulation, and the like, then someone else will be in a position to dictate the terms of your future. The end of the time horizons cone is very wide, since it can be impossible to calculate the probability of these kinds of events happening. So the actions taken should be describing the direction in which you hope the organization and the industry will evolve.
Unlike a traditional timeline with rigid dates and check-ins, the cone always moves forward. As you gain data and evidence and as you make progress on your actions, the beginning of the cone and your tactical category is always reset in the present day. The result, ideally, is a flexible organization that is positioned to continually iterate and respond to external developments
Use Time Cones, Not Time Lines
Futurists think about time differently, and company strategists could learn from their approach. For any given uncertainty about the future — whether that’s risk, opportunity, or growth — we tend to think in the short- and long-term simultaneously. To do this, I use a framework that measures certainty and charts actions, rather than simply marking the passage of time as quarters or years. That’s why my timelines aren’t actually lines at all — they are cones.
For every foresight project, I build a cone with four distinct categories: (1) tactics, (2) strategy, (3) vision, and (4) systems-level evolution.
I start by defining the cone’s edge, using highly probable events for which there is already data or evidence. The amount of time varies for every project, organization, and industry, but typically 12 to 24 months is a good place to start. Because we can identify trends and probable events (both within a company and external to it), the kind of planning that can be done is tactical in nature, and the corresponding actions could include things like redesigning products or identifying and targeting a new customer segment.
Tactical decisions must fit into an organization’s strategy. At this point in the cone, we are a little less certain of outcomes, because we’re looking at the next 24 months to five years. This area is what’s most familiar to strategy officers and their teams: We’re describing traditional strategy and the direction the organization will take. Our actions include defining priorities, allocating resources, and making any personnel changes needed.
Lots of organizations get stuck cycling between strategy and tactics. While that process might feel like serious planning for the future, it results in a perpetual cycle of trying to catch up: to competitors, to new entrants, and to external sources of disruption.
That’s why you must be willing to accept more uncertainty as you continually recalibrate your organization’s vision for the future. A company’s vision cannot include every detail, because there are still many unknowns. Leaders can articulate a strong vision for 10 to 15 years in the future while being open to iterating on the strategy and tactics categories as they encounter new tech trends, global events, social changes, and economic shifts. In the vision category, we formulate actions based on how the executive leadership will pursue research, where it will make investments, and how it will develop the workforce it will someday need.
But the vision for an organization must also fit into the last category: systems-level disruption that could unfold in the farther future. If executive leaders do not have a strong sense of how their industry must evolve to meet the challenges of new technology, market forces, regulation, and the like, then someone else will be in a position to dictate the terms of your future. The end of the time horizons cone is very wide, since it can be impossible to calculate the probability of these kinds of events happening. So the actions taken should be describing the direction in which you hope the organization and the industry will evolve.
Unlike a traditional timeline with rigid dates and check-ins, the cone always moves forward. As you gain data and evidence and as you make progress on your actions, the beginning of the cone and your tactical category is always reset in the present day. The result, ideally, is a flexible organization that is positioned to continually iterate and respond to external developments
https://hbr.org/2019/07/how-to-do-strategic-planning-like-a-futurist?