andybega / spduration

Split-population duration model in R
https://andybeger.com/spduration/
4 stars 0 forks source link

clarify how `forecast` works #20

Open andybega opened 7 years ago

andybega commented 7 years ago

Documentation should be more explicit about the assumptions, i.e. carry forward extrapolation of x and updating under assumption of no event for duration.

More fundamentally, the way forecasting should be done to best take advantage of existing information depends on the lag structure of the model. The best way to forecast, e.g., if the DV y is lead and covariates are not lagged versus a model in which x is lagged and the DV y is not lead is different. There is no easy way to incorporate knowledge of these modeling assumptions without adding attributes to the data/model frames, so maybe better to change forecast so that failure information (y) and extrapolated covariates (newx?) can be passed explicitly.