artc-dsc / Tasks

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Takeover Statistical Models #45

Open ZengyuCao-ARTC opened 5 months ago

ZengyuCao-ARTC commented 5 months ago

Latest Code:

model evaluation model prediction Reference: PyCaret Documentation Dependency: Demand Profiling (feature extraction) still owned by Zengyu

Main Logics: Forecast Model Selection & Evaluation​

Handcraft model selection rules to try out 5 various models for evaluation (holdout prediction)​ utilize characteristics from feature extraction steps to decide trial models and their parameters​ Compare model performance with dynamic configs => DB table [forecast_metrics]​ (e.g. window size=365, forecast horizon=60, Frequency='D', sort metric='MAPE', etc.)​

Model Family: Naïve, Exponential Smoothing, ETS, ARIMA, Prophet, BATS, Croston, etc.​ Variants on seasonal parameter, stationarity, differencing/transformation, applied​

Documentation with Name and characteristics: model library

Related Issues:

ZengyuCao-ARTC commented 5 months ago

@ARTC-Doris FYI