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ashokkrish / spatialEpisim

spatialEpisim: Spatial Tracking of Infectious Disease Epidemics using Mathematical Models
GNU General Public License v3.0
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Should the first day's results be included in summary columns? #17

Closed bryce-carson closed 3 months ago

bryce-carson commented 5 months ago

See the following table...

Date N S V E I R D newV newE newI newR newD cumE cumI Alpha Beta Gamma Sigma Delta Radius Lambda Model DA
1 2024-06-11 473,602 465,682 6,000 1,200 600 60 60 69 836 11 39 1 1,200 600 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
2 2024-06-12 465,682 456,857 6,069 2,025 571 99 61 69 761 18 37 1 2,036 611 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
3 2024-06-13 465,682 456,028 6,137 2,768 551 136 62 68 707 25 35 1 2,797 629 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
4 2024-06-14 465,682 455,253 6,206 3,450 540 171 63 68 674 31 34 1 3,504 654 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
5 2024-06-15 465,682 454,510 6,274 4,093 536 205 63 68 656 37 32 1 4,178 685 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
6 2024-06-16 465,682 453,786 6,342 4,712 540 237 64 68 649 42 31 1 4,834 722 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
7 2024-06-17 465,682 453,069 6,410 5,319 551 268 65 68 652 47 31 1 5,483 764 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
8 2024-06-18 465,682 452,350 6,478 5,923 567 299 66 68 661 53 31 1 6,134 811 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
9 2024-06-19 465,682 451,621 6,546 6,531 588 330 66 68 677 59 35 1 6,795 864 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0
10 2024-06-20 465,682 450,877 6,614 7,149 611 365 67 68 693 64 39 1 7,472 923 0.00015 0.055 0.009 0.065 0.0015 3 15 SVEIRD 0

@ashokkrish, personally, I'd expect the number of infected at the end of the first day to be $I = 600_I + 11_I - 39_R - 1_D = 571_I$, since there are eleven new infections and thirty-seven people recovered. The next day, I'd expect the number of active infections to begin at this reduced number, but also include the new infections at the end of this second reporting day, and the number of people that recovered during this day as well, ie $I = 572_I + 18_I - 37_R - 1_D = 551_I$.

What should it be? It seems a little awkward, at least. It might be incorrect. Perhaps a caption for the table should specify that the value in $I$ is actually the initial number of infected, the number at the beginning of that day, not the end.

bryce-carson commented 4 months ago

@ashokkrish, may I have your input on this question?

ashokkrish commented 4 months ago

@ashokkrish, may I have your input on this question?

Typically Day 1 is the day simulation begins with the user input. Day 2 is what is after 1 full day. I would leave Day 1 as is because sometimes we might want to see how many new cases after one day so Day 1 is a reference point. I hope this make sense.

bryce-carson commented 4 months ago

Yes, very helpful.

On Thu., Jul. 18, 2024, 1:56 p.m. Ashok Krishnamurthy, < @.***> wrote:

@ashokkrish https://github.com/ashokkrish, may I have your input on this question?

Typically Day 1 is the day simulation begins with the user input. Day 2 is what is after 1 full day. I would leave Day 1 as is because sometimes we might want to see how many new cases after one day so Day 1 pis a reference point. I hope this make sense.

— Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub https://github.com/ashokkrish/spatialEpisim/issues/17#issuecomment-2237456536, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AMMRAZPJMFDDQ7JTORDHWNLZNAMVZAVCNFSM6AAAAABJFSQU5KVHI2DSMVQWIX3LMV43OSLTON2WKQ3PNVWWK3TUHMZDEMZXGQ2TMNJTGY . You are receiving this because you authored the thread.Message ID: @.***>