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atas76 / openengine

Football match engine
MIT License
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Pass probability calculation #15

Open atas76 opened 11 months ago

atas76 commented 11 months ago

Currently the pass probability is dependent on a baseline probability (allowing for mistakes), and the distance (vertical and horizontal). We are not concerned at this stage with how tight the marking is; we take it to be the same on average for the whole match duration and pitch. If, according to tactics, there is a marker, then we calculate the pass probability, otherwise we assume the pass has 100% success. We also would like to allow for 'half marking', when a player is loosely marked according to tactics (let's say the winger in a 4-4-2 is marked by a midfielder of a 4-3-3 defending team). In this case, we would like to factor how tightly a player could be marked, not according to the specific match instance, but according to the tactical layout, by attenuating the distance factors.

atas76 commented 4 months ago

This refers to an obsolete experimental subproject. It will be covered by the 'pitch control' approach.