Closed jjw3952 closed 2 years ago
The book is correct. 0.24 = left shaded area / (left shaded area + right shaded area) = Pr(estimate is negative | estimate is statistically significantly different from zero).
Ahh, yes that makes sense. Sorry for the false alarm!
On pg 292 in the winner's curse example it states that given the situation described there is a 24% probability of the estimate being in the wrong direction. I cannot figure out how that 24% was arrived at so I think that's an error. There's about a 40% probability it's negative and about a 1.2% chance it's negative and two standard deviations below the true effect value.