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avehtari / ROS-Examples

Regression and other stories R examples
https://avehtari.github.io/ROS-Examples/
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Winner's curse example #92

Closed jjw3952 closed 2 years ago

jjw3952 commented 3 years ago

On pg 292 in the winner's curse example it states that given the situation described there is a 24% probability of the estimate being in the wrong direction. I cannot figure out how that 24% was arrived at so I think that's an error. There's about a 40% probability it's negative and about a 1.2% chance it's negative and two standard deviations below the true effect value.

andrewgelman commented 3 years ago

The book is correct. 0.24 = left shaded area / (left shaded area + right shaded area) = Pr(estimate is negative | estimate is statistically significantly different from zero).

jjw3952 commented 3 years ago

Ahh, yes that makes sense. Sorry for the false alarm!