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List Amateur Pool Association matches from each player on a team
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Investigate extremes of expected points for skill level matchups #39

Open bakerqb opened 4 weeks ago

bakerqb commented 4 weeks ago

Low 4's are expected to score 1.7 points against high 5's, while high 5's are expected to score 0.8 points against low 4's. This doesn't make sense, as mid 4's are expected to score 1.2 points against mid 5's, while mid 5's are expected to score 1.3 points against mid 4's. Investigate why the numbers are this way. There are two likely scenarios:

  1. There is very little data of matches between low 4's and high 5's, so the numbers aren't representative
  2. The adjusted skill level is off in some way that it is assigning people low/high adjusted skill levels when they don't deserve it. If this is the case, it MAY have something to do with the adjusted skill level algorithm not handling skill level changes well.
bakerqb commented 4 weeks ago

TeamMatchId's of matches between low 4's and mid 5's: 11654650: expected result 12402193: the high 5 had become a 5 6 matches ago, so he probably should've been considered a mid 5. The low 4 had had some tough matches against high players recently that he hadn't taken won, so he juuust dropped from a mid 4 to a low 4. Realistically, this should've been a match between a mid 4 and a mid 5 13563204: expected result 13563274: the high 5 was a solid high 5. The low 4 on the other hand had just gone up from a 3, and then went to a 5 the next match and then flip-flopped between a 4 and a 5. I think to the best of our knowledge, he was a low 4 at that time, so this was a legit result albeit an outlier 40635502: the low 4 had just been a 5 two matches prior, so he should've been a mid or a high 4. The high 5 was a solid high 5 41896974: legit result, where low 4 simply outplayed the high 5 43175851: expected result 8453193: freaky result. The high 5 was a legit high 5. The 4 had gone up from a 3 recently, but he went up to a 5 after this match and stayed there for a long time. 11654669: expected result 13563199: freaky result. The high 5 was a legit high 5. The 4 had gone up from a 3 recently, so we have no reason to believe he should've been anything more than a low 4 41691464: the high 5 was barely a high 5, but I think he earned it. The low 4 was barely a low 4, but I think he earned it too. Although he didn't have lots of games in the system to back up the fact that he was a low 4 instead of a mid 4 43116610: the high 5 was a legit high 5. The 4 is for sure a mid/high 4, but he had just lost two matches to 3's right before this match, so he barely dipped into "low 4" territory