MoreCast 2.0: Minimum Viable Product Definition

[NicolasLivanos]

Timeline: MVP completed by April 5, 2023 (4 sprints) Refinement: Up to May 3, 2023 (2 extra sprints)

Target Users: Weather Forecasters Product Goal: Create a Daily Weather Forecast w/ a Semi-automated and Sped up Workflow that can be Submitted to WF1 Key Performance Indicator: Current Forecast Creation Time in Minutes vs MoreCast 2.0 Time

MVP Acceptance Criteria 1) Forecaster logs in and only sees active weather stations for his/her selected Fire Centre as default (but can work on other Fire Centres as well).

• Forecaster can configure the duration of a forecast from 1 to 11 days into the future where day 1 is today and day 2 is tomorrow. Forecasters typically default to 3 or 4 days depending on day of the week and their Fire Centre's preparedness planning cycle.

2) Forecaster has five possible weather models as data sources to build a forecast (HRDPS, RDPS, GDPS, GFS, NAM).

• A completed forecast is archived in a database according to the IDIR that created it (this will facilitate forecaster-specific skill scoring).
• Forecaster can use weather observations from yesterday or today for persistence forecasting. Persistent forecasting is a strong tool which uses weather observations from the previous days. Need to have weather observations as a data source in addition to numerical weather models.
• Forecaster can manually adjust values in a weather forecast generated from raw model outputs.

3) Forecaster can configure which data source to use for each weather parameter (Temp, RH, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Precipitation).

• Filter active vs non-active stations and by default only show the 1st station in that Fire Centre
• Non-forecaster IDIR's can log in and view completed forecasts issued today but cannot generate or push forecasts to WF1.
• Saving + Retrieving a forecast

4) Forecasters currently create station groups in WF1 to define which stations receive forecasts and which do not. It is too time consuming to forecast for all stations. (Filters, Zones, Centres, Active)

• Viewing 3 previous days

  REFINEMENT SPRINTS 5) Forecaster can push weather forecast into WF1 and the push is associated with their IDIR. Need to ensure we can overwrite a submitted forecast, eg.) updating yesterday's forecast for today, or resubmitting today's forecast because I made an update or correction.

• Forecaster can define and apply a bias correction to a weather parameter column for selected stations, (Eg. Add 2 degrees Celsius to the Temp column for selected stations).

6) TBD

Cadillac features and stretch goals that are out of scope for MVP

• Forecaster can configure which data source to use for each day of a forecast (Eg. Day 1 = HRDPS, Day 2 = HRDPS, Day 3 = RDPS).
• Visualization of raw model data and recent weather observations. Forecasters will often look ahead in the hourly model values (eg. 14:00) to inform their 12:00 LST forecast.
• Compare model surface elevation to actual elevation for the stations. A related feature request is to extract model data from the grid cell with the closest elevation to the station first, and then prioritize the grid cell with the closest lat long. Elevation representativeness is more important than proximity.
• Weather model skill scoring for all weather parameters - visible to all users.
• Forecaster skill scoring for all weather parameters - only visible to weather forecasters and their supervisor.
• Forecaster can configure default model selection criteria for groups of stations within their Fire Centre. Eg.) Group weather stations according to the biogeoclimatic zone they fall within.
• Use skill scoring and/or machine learning to select what combination of models and bias adjustments are best to auto-populate a forecast.
• Ability to add a fire location and create a spot forecast.
• Produce bias adjusted hourly forecasts in addition to daily forecasts. Daily forecasts could be derived from hourly forecasts.
• Adjust and mosaic raw model outputs so that gridded weather data are available for other applications like fire growth modelling.

[NicolasLivanos]

https://www.figma.com/file/VhTyJ9w0k8qSjdxAtSfdah/Untitled?node-id=0-1

[NicolasLivanos]

Morecast 2.0 Product Vision Elevator Statement

 FOR (target customer) • BC Wildfire Service Weather Forecasters

 WHO (Statement of need or opportunity) • Want to submit daily weather forecasts to WF1

 THE (product name) IS A (Product Category) • Morecast 2.0 is a weather model evaluation tool

 THAT (Key benefit or reason) • Ranks, evaluates, and presents weather models

 UNLIKE (Primary competitive alternative) • Legacy tools

 OUR PRODUCT (Statement of Primary Differentiation) • Faster and easy to use