MoreCast 2.0: Skill Scoring

[NicolasLivanos]

As a weather forecaster

I need skill scores for numerical models and my own forecasts

So That I can evaluate the performance of weather models and my own forecasts.

Acceptance Criteria

• [ ] Given numerical weather models and my forecast are archived, When actual weather observations are available, Then a rolling week/10day skill score is automatically calculated and stored.
• [ ] Determine accuracy of current skill scoring methods used by forecasters.

Additional Context

• Skill scores for weather models and bias adjusted models are stored in a database. These skill scores are viewable by anyone.
• Skill scores associated with my forecast are stored in an the databased and associated with my IDIR. Only I can view my skill scores.
• Skill score visualizations should be created where I can see my skill for a particular station or overall plotted over time. I should also be able to see my skill for a specific period plotted spatially on a map. I.e.) I want to see where and when my skill is low/high.

[rajpersram]

Can connect with Enviro Canada to find out how they do skill scoring (check with Mat)

[rajpersram]

First discovery session with Mat McDonald complete. From initial conversations with Neal, initial Figma mockups are available here.

[rajpersram]

Forecasters are currently unavailable, and I've only heard back from Jesse Ellis, who said he is booked up until the end of Oct. We have a meeting set up for Nov 1, 10am at the moment but this may change.

[NicolasLivanos]

Hi Raj, PO moved this back to the backlog until such time that the Forecasters are available and we will switch focus to this product. Thanks!

[rajpersram]

From January session PSU/Kamloops meetings, half of the Forecasters were contacted and engaged in a UX Discovery Session to learn about their tools and processes for forecasting. Matt M. has recommended the new hires also be consulted in future UX sessions and is going to provide their contact details this week (Jan 15-19).