dreeves
commented
2 years ago [this was from almost a year before Manifold decided to pivot explicitly to real-money]
Manifold and play money vs real:
the most exciting thing to me about manifold markets is that it's already real-money. i can deposit real money and bet with it, and if you donate your winnings and let that offset a Giving What We Can pledge, then you're effectively withdrawing real money too.
the charity option is interesting because normally i really hate the norm in public betting where the loser donates to a charity of the winner's choosing. it should be understood that you spend winnings from wagering as self-indulgently as possible! i'm serious. betting isn't an effective tax on bullshit if you don't feel gains and losses viscerally.
but i'm also 110% sold on the 10% rule for charitable giving. (see https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/11/16/the-economic-perspective-on-moral-standards/ for an elegant philosophical case for that.) so if there's a fixed amount i'm donating to charity and i specifically offset that with my manifold winnings then that's equivalent to spending my winnings on cocaine and hookers. or in my case, i'm mostly spending any winnings on subsidizing other markets, but that counts as selfish spending too! i'm buying information and incentivizing research on questions that i want answers to. it's another thing that makes mana have real value as a currency, even if you never put real money in or take any out via donating it.
We're very in favor of charity, like the Giving What We Can pledge (see Scott Alexander's post about this) and the Effective Altruism movement, but very against charity and commitment devices or charity and wagers mixing.
In particular, I hate the norm where you have a bet and the loser donates to a charity of the winner's choosing. It should be understood that you spend winnings from wagering as self-indulgently as possible! Suggesting the charity thing when publicly wagering should be viewed as sanctimony and supercilious wealth-flaunting.
But isn't that pretty pro-social and a good way to induce more charitable giving?
Very fair question. I shall think harder about whether I seriously think my objections outweigh that consideration.
If I do end up with a blog post here, it could be a good prelude to my future post about why I hate the Beemium premium plan.
Cognata
10
2
Verbata: charity, anti-charity, anti-charities, anticharity, betting, wagering, prediction markets, anti-beemium,