blab / mers-structure

MERS-CoV spillover at the camel-human interface
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Essential revision 3 #21

Closed evogytis closed 6 years ago

evogytis commented 6 years ago

A comparison to ML tree reconstruction could potentially be illuminating. We think you could be clearer about what drives the results in your paper. It is unusual for a phylogenetic ancestral reconstruction, that the results seem to be determined as much by the coalescent assumptions as by the tree topology. The two-patch model had a much higher coalescent rate in the human deme than in the camel deme - so long branches are only really possible in the camel deme. This may be why for example, staring at the top clade of figure 1, one can see camel ancestry to a whole bunch of human sequences that are not topologically separated by camel sequences. If this is correct, these results may not necessarily be wrong, but it made us slightly uncomfortable that the results are driven by the coalescent model, not the tree topology. Please elaborate, either correcting us, or explaining better. A simple test of this hypothesis would be that an ML ancestral reconstruction on the ML tree would not give the same clusters. I don't think that would make the ML result correct, but it might be an enlightening comparison. Or you may prefer another way to address this.

evogytis commented 6 years ago

Not sure how I feel about this one. Isn't the whole point of structured coalescent to infer coalescence rates from available data and use that information to parts of the tree where sequences aren't available? Part of our inference should also come from asymmetry in migration - a backbone lineage in humans is unlikely because migration rate out of humans is low. Should we argue this and add text or shall I make an ML tree with labels reconstructed via parsimony that prefers longest branch state? Thoughts?

evogytis commented 6 years ago

Suggestion from @trvrb - run structured coalescent with enforced identical pop sizes between demes. Should tell us the difference between forwards vs backwards in time migration inference.

trvrb commented 6 years ago

This is really nicely done @evogytis. I think this is almost there. The results are great, but I'd add a sentence explaining why the SC model behaves as it does requiring non-equal pop sizes. I'd suggest appending this sentence following

When rapid coalescence in the human deme is not allowed (Figure \ref{equal_sizes}) structured coalescent inference loses power and ancestral state reconstruction is nearly identical to that of discrete trait analysis (Figure \ref{dta}).

Seems appropriate for this point in the Discussion.

trvrb commented 6 years ago

I believe this is now resolved. Closing issue. @evogytis, reopen if you disagree.