chance of player winning the tournament calculator. - Githubissues

bliutwo / django-glicko2

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chance of player winning the tournament calculator. #3

Open BenKatin opened 5 years ago

BenKatin commented 5 years ago

either by entering a link to an unfinished (or unstarted) challonge bracket, or by entering of list of player names entering a tournament, compute each players expected chance of winning the bracket.

BenKatin commented 5 years ago

Given a incomplete tournament and a file of player glico2 scores, calculate each players percentage change of winning the tournament.

bliutwo commented 5 years ago

prerequisites for this:

output glicko-rating values (maybe in a .txt, .csv, .json, etc. format)

bliutwo commented 5 years ago

solution:

get current glicko2-rating values
calculate based on potential matchups (decide what the matchups are later)
output probabilities

BenKatin commented 5 years ago

2 player bracket option A: (P a beats b)(rating A) + (P b beats a)(rating b)

option B: (P a beats b)(rating A) + (P b beats a)(rating b)

bliutwo commented 5 years ago

easier way:

you've won
who'd you have to beat to get here
probabilities of winning against those people

bliutwo commented 5 years ago

just do a montecarlo simulation -trock

bliutwo commented 5 years ago

or do the math way, which is apparently harder!