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c2-d2 / detect_prob_corona2019

Online code for Niehus et al 2020
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Flight data #1

Open trucnguyen83 opened 4 years ago

trucnguyen83 commented 4 years ago

Hi, what is the source of the flight data and what is the unit of it? Is it how many passenger per day? Thank you!

reneniehus commented 4 years ago

Hi, yes the unit is passengers per day. The source is this one:

​Shengjie Lai, Isaac Bogoch, Nick Ruktanonchai, Alexander Watts, Yu Li, Jianzing Yu, XinLv, Weizhong Yang, Hongjie Yu, Kamran Khan, Zhongjie Li, Andrew J Tatem. Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modellingstudy.m​edRxiv​(2020)doi:​10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479​.

From: trucnguyen83 notifications@github.com Reply-To: c2-d2/detect_prob_corona2019 reply@reply.github.com Date: Tuesday, 18 February 2020 at 03:33 To: c2-d2/detect_prob_corona2019 detect_prob_corona2019@noreply.github.com Cc: Subscribed subscribed@noreply.github.com Subject: [c2-d2/detect_prob_corona2019] Flight data (#1)

Hi, what is the source of the flight data and what is the unit of it? Is it how many passenger per day? Thank you!

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trucnguyen83 commented 4 years ago

Hi,

Thanks for the source. I just tried to search the source for the data. It's in Table S8 (Supplementary table). The title of the table is "Top 30 ranked destiantions outside of mainland China receiving airline travellers from Wuhan in mainland China during the two weeks before the city’s lockdown." So your unit should be number of passenger per 2 weeks (not daily).

Other paragraphs inside the reference also mentioned: "We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 - 1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of mainland China during the two weeks prior to Wuhan’s lockdown. " "During the two weeks before Wuhan’s lockdown, there were an estimated total 59,912 airline travellers from Wuhan that may have needed to be kept in quarantine at the 382 destinations outside of mainland China (Supplementary Table S8). " This 59,912 matched the sum of the table.

So do you need to re-run your model with x(i)/14 ? because your paper mentioned it's daily travel value.

violeetaa commented 4 years ago

You are right. Thank you for this!