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canmod / nfld-macpan

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variant #4

Open ahurford opened 2 years ago

ahurford commented 2 years ago

Hi @stevencarlislewalker - I made a start on adding in BA.2 (variant.Rmd). I just used the initial model estimates and made a function that calculates the % BA.2 at any time, and then graphed the share of cases that are BA.2. Essentially no new fitting, just a partitioning of the initial model fit to cases based on assumption that I made about % BA.2.

What I might do next is to understand beta as a weighted average of beta for BA.1 and beta for BA.2 and then forward project the weighted average of beta into the future based on the % BA.2 formula.

stevencarlislewalker commented 2 years ago

Thanks @ahurford. I'll look at #3 today and then this.