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chrisroadmap / fair-calibrate

Calibration package for fair (>=2.1)
MIT License
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Expand prior range for TCR (calibration) #72

Open chrisroadmap opened 1 year ago

chrisroadmap commented 1 year ago

Training data is from CMIP6 models, where the lowest model has a TCR of 1.33C (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FGD_Chapter07_SM.pdf)

IPCC assesses 5th percentile of TCR to be 1.2C. We need to extend the prior at the low end to sample more low TCR values.

chrisroadmap commented 1 year ago

5th percentile of reweighted posterior is 1.28C. Don't know if this is worth the extra effort to nudge down to 1.2C

chrisroadmap commented 1 year ago

this is a tough one - kick can down road