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chrisroadmap / fair-calibrate

Calibration package for fair (>=2.1)
MIT License
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Fixes for v1.2 #99

Closed chrisroadmap closed 1 year ago

chrisroadmap commented 1 year ago
chrisroadmap commented 1 year ago

With no future warming constraint, projections are cooler in the median but have a wider spread particularly at the upper end. Concentration driven constraints result in the lowest emissions-driven warming. This is most consistent with AR6. No formal constraint was used in AR6 but it was a sense check.

Coolest to warmest future projections: C-driven constraint < no constraint < E-driven constraint

Including SSP2-4.5 emissions-driven constraint

ECS: [2.02417724 2.93359029 4.94221885] TCR: [1.31961369 1.80908223 2.40658181] CO2 concentration 2014: [396.95639809 397.55234771 398.17040816] Temperature 1995-2014 rel. 1850-1900: [0.71546513 0.85685509 0.98879702] Aerosol ERFari 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-0.60571589 -0.29754805 0.02621409] Aerosol ERFaci 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-1.71156023 -0.99301701 -0.28006138] Aerosol ERF 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-2.00836559 -1.30372708 -0.52815203] OHC change 2018 rel. 1971*: [329.18466896 393.8145736 467.76230525] ssp245 2081-2100: [1.21585922 1.79194349 2.63815461] Concentration-driven Anomalies rel. 1995-2014: [[0.40460593 0.65187131 0.94057397] [0.41858823 0.79286697 1.30134686] [0.25639999 0.69991246 1.33075875] [0.42668777 0.66931457 0.95361555] [0.58633622 0.97293881 1.48841181] [0.56240505 1.06622637 1.77060335] [0.47006799 0.6651526 0.91319117] [0.82376115 1.17894956 1.63549479] [1.34743969 2.00095308 2.91587565] [0.48551784 0.65831388 0.89115519] [0.99465759 1.30420085 1.70427833] [2.1511781 2.8743182 3.84064622] [0.53302884 0.75114887 1.02597743] [1.13712017 1.57935444 2.12501076] [2.69038857 3.72669144 5.13756197]] Concentration-driven Anomalies rel. 1850-1900: [[1.20043602 1.4801668 1.79757891] [1.248426 1.61466143 2.12355015] [1.09908571 1.5204841 2.14442181] [1.22109044 1.49610401 1.80254376] [1.41196416 1.79354836 2.3288577 ] [1.3941543 1.88891189 2.57890031] [1.24279793 1.50353106 1.78173989] [1.62576705 2.01782867 2.47487916] [2.15450291 2.83881183 3.75405995] [1.24572425 1.50001737 1.77274713] [1.75167284 2.15325025 2.56203106] [2.95434496 3.71394883 4.6891023 ] [1.30898861 1.59158756 1.88530867] [1.94301763 2.42143387 2.98527725] [3.50147597 4.54822681 5.95400705]] Emissions-driven Anomalies rel. 1995-2014: [[0.36971477 0.61125013 0.88740841] [0.36661605 0.71394642 1.18202106] [0.19773928 0.60966771 1.17971149] [0.4002282 0.63264778 0.90053835] [0.52642008 0.8864132 1.37974828] [0.48096745 0.94619388 1.59989046] [0.44622028 0.63634603 0.87791413] [0.76810526 1.09451712 1.51964944] [1.21585923 1.7919435 2.63815464] [0.46282642 0.62864436 0.85153302] [0.91157582 1.20754398 1.58107119] [1.95829457 2.61258651 3.44782322] [0.51506407 0.72585897 0.99346612] [1.0677 1.49712529 2.00013324] [2.48021359 3.45817217 4.70110168]] Emissions-driven Anomalies rel. 1850-1900: [[1.18568827 1.46039081 1.7675833 ] [1.22299212 1.56529894 2.04616249] [1.06801097 1.45887322 2.04066569] [1.20828048 1.48429709 1.78709239] [1.37035064 1.73698952 2.23195811] [1.32859906 1.79389013 2.45047959] [1.23254757 1.49415906 1.77047782] [1.58406149 1.95677355 2.38773315] [2.0346255 2.6538173 3.46929208] [1.23374647 1.48944749 1.76338755] [1.68510173 2.06891216 2.47689312] [2.76688156 3.4793714 4.33586738] [1.30603084 1.58564177 1.88333367] [1.89905374 2.36077288 2.90521798] [3.30589283 4.31254897 5.53981046]]

No future warming constraint

ECS: [2.0105393 2.93359029 4.98800184] TCR: [1.30870548 1.81113596 2.37486109] CO2 concentration 2014: [396.88732411 397.5172515 398.17989394] Temperature 1995-2014 rel. 1850-1900: [0.71242902 0.85526147 0.98700491] Aerosol ERFari 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-0.60010164 -0.29857054 0.00470218] Aerosol ERFaci 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-1.6859261 -0.98958358 -0.30903745] Aerosol ERF 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-2.00092736 -1.2881465 -0.53705493] OHC change 2018 rel. 1971*: [330.94781428 396.18745795 465.20150645] Concentration-driven Anomalies rel. 1995-2014: [[0.36160274 0.63138814 1.00483849] [0.36377787 0.76951446 1.42838091] [0.21427857 0.66722906 1.51323328] [0.39110801 0.65008034 1.01524434] [0.51448371 0.94745979 1.62674595] [0.47953653 1.0247723 2.01217339] [0.42651173 0.6479548 0.96298086] [0.76010103 1.1495076 1.79030531] [1.23829321 1.95748233 3.23736034] [0.45770738 0.64552512 0.93056507] [0.92545488 1.28328321 1.87111609] [2.0220132 2.82021645 4.18900017] [0.48862464 0.73565421 1.07192334] [1.06458623 1.5525861 2.30254223] [2.53168981 3.65323779 5.59088192]] Concentration-driven Anomalies rel. 1850-1900: [[1.15696747 1.46134844 1.86135362] [1.18935026 1.58309287 2.28292314] [1.03312537 1.49465356 2.34932562] [1.1785528 1.47892651 1.87288658] [1.33523737 1.76361975 2.47874105] [1.29630501 1.85806742 2.82893822] [1.2079124 1.49138349 1.83957742] [1.54379255 1.98368021 2.63780999] [2.05491874 2.78033135 4.06388494] [1.20749374 1.49453718 1.81934569] [1.69476254 2.12523702 2.72580808] [2.80107972 3.65714411 5.06276303] [1.26643608 1.57813108 1.95148459] [1.84734832 2.38945924 3.19224038] [3.32619213 4.48505246 6.42775897]] Emissions-driven Anomalies rel. 1995-2014: [[0.33207261 0.59112011 0.96059735] [0.307986 0.68508223 1.34506117] [0.14627344 0.58018464 1.39655169] [0.35874185 0.61345236 0.9727576 ] [0.45609656 0.86031402 1.53428148] [0.38946223 0.90434173 1.84577727] [0.40621524 0.6148318 0.93646973] [0.69382464 1.06700951 1.68422613] [1.0644463 1.7380665 2.96584226] [0.43589248 0.61430512 0.90407226] [0.84929358 1.18758635 1.74250054] [1.79515803 2.55757912 3.88069964] [0.47149967 0.71041147 1.05841868] [0.98602236 1.45785333 2.16605593] [2.26351331 3.37395352 5.21494774]] Emissions-driven Anomalies rel. 1850-1900: [[1.14212444 1.44529314 1.83937702] [1.13992899 1.53256834 2.20919323] [0.98886432 1.42765754 2.25381513] [1.16715738 1.46537148 1.85933946] [1.28773938 1.70714514 2.40127321] [1.2269682 1.75887082 2.70338553] [1.19563126 1.47969433 1.83721305] [1.50238618 1.92943708 2.57468125] [1.90225478 2.59591954 3.81642853] [1.20642109 1.48235652 1.80925989] [1.63200916 2.04853906 2.64223732] [2.61704002 3.42834823 4.7749531 ] [1.26080668 1.56745868 1.9653699 ] [1.79078815 2.33306773 3.09508961] [3.10371607 4.2403148 6.08167689]]

SSP2-4.5 concentration-driven constraint

ECS: [2.014421 2.90746436 4.93945791] TCR: [1.31550614 1.80385743 2.44374196] CO2 concentration 2014: [396.8873065 397.55384034 398.16769315] Temperature 1995-2014 rel. 1850-1900: [0.71159123 0.85252397 0.98759338] Aerosol ERFari 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-0.61262331 -0.29124031 0.01944085] Aerosol ERFaci 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-1.68690125 -0.98183415 -0.27926875] Aerosol ERF 2005-2014 rel. 1750: [-2.00294747 -1.26967243 -0.52729514] OHC change 2018 rel. 1971*: [323.39282568 397.83274787 472.6630046 ] ssp245 2081-2100: [1.22153186 1.82972385 2.65697299] Concentration-driven Anomalies rel. 1995-2014: [[0.35170557 0.58926053 0.87757225] [0.36377787 0.71074325 1.16677082] [0.19460673 0.59641378 1.16331832] [0.37291611 0.60719237 0.88483337] [0.52112886 0.87619282 1.34930978] [0.47484665 0.93700654 1.58680804] [0.4135627 0.61064382 0.84375344] [0.76374638 1.08873817 1.52524573] [1.22153186 1.82972385 2.65697299] [0.43838952 0.61336615 0.82692506] [0.91238757 1.22321177 1.60166392] [2.00126661 2.69480102 3.55810427] [0.47535976 0.69663929 0.95342164] [1.06115935 1.48214281 2.01665702] [2.50834072 3.46623515 4.75580003]] Concentration-driven Anomalies rel. 1850-1900: [[1.15085329 1.42259305 1.73153458] [1.17846436 1.53494139 2.01906024] [1.02991412 1.42315066 1.97999054] [1.16982659 1.44207387 1.74315966] [1.32729085 1.70416678 2.21489857] [1.29514069 1.76273056 2.40019555] [1.18384838 1.44783767 1.72506134] [1.54295003 1.91965971 2.37436911] [2.03867135 2.65380456 3.48223668] [1.19203438 1.44625993 1.71946481] [1.68829843 2.05130267 2.48356648] [2.7939835 3.5186358 4.3841573 ] [1.25204632 1.53140221 1.84329274] [1.83938055 2.30733406 2.86581822] [3.29687443 4.3106542 5.58924684]] Emissions-driven Anomalies rel. 1995-2014: [[0.31650553 0.55056889 0.83271264] [0.30913465 0.63814051 1.09595261] [0.12845322 0.5123182 1.06588665] [0.34263787 0.56956522 0.8413826 ] [0.46417245 0.80071548 1.27375685] [0.37064611 0.81571456 1.45382947] [0.39056419 0.58416045 0.8109931 ] [0.69649467 1.00800308 1.43412833] [1.04517222 1.63363647 2.47098427] [0.40956736 0.58567678 0.79168292] [0.83072238 1.12831406 1.49460643] [1.77162834 2.44042658 3.27380425] [0.45610621 0.67525529 0.92774631] [0.98602236 1.39291542 1.92664911] [2.2568407 3.1974528 4.44655672]] Emissions-driven Anomalies rel. 1850-1900: [[1.13209516 1.40595495 1.70534228] [1.1366913 1.48810628 1.95126936] [0.98827396 1.35603596 1.91389946] [1.15459647 1.42887214 1.72108287] [1.27758873 1.65436966 2.13787936] [1.22158829 1.66860812 2.31379448] [1.18484427 1.44215395 1.7155767 ] [1.49951094 1.86666066 2.32610509] [1.88984973 2.49294518 3.29838517] [1.1867201 1.44065794 1.70495667] [1.61794373 1.98476691 2.39264958] [2.59708555 3.29606388 4.14827847] [1.25152025 1.53474475 1.84193026] [1.78583268 2.24371853 2.80073872] [3.092451 4.06732802 5.32404287]]

chrisroadmap commented 1 year ago

Another thing that needs to go in the Wiki is that I think v1.0 and v1.1 used GMST constraint (lower bound 0.69C and 0.95C 5-95) whereas I think we should use GSAT (lower bound 0.67-0.98C 5-95) for 1995-2014 relative to 1850-1900.

I got this wrong anyway by mixing and matching ranges. I was using [0.69, 0.85, 0.98]. GMST is [0.69, 0.85, 0.95]. GSAT is [0.67, 0.85, 0.98]. I will use GSAT.