Time series analysis?

[1e100]

Via Twitter: someone on 4chan, of all places, scraped time series from NYT and analyzed GOP/Dem vote share drift in vote count deltas over time. That is, with each update, what's the percentage of the update for Biden vs Trump (or at least that's how I understand it). Outside the turbulent period where in-person votes are counted, mail-in tended to drift slightly towards GOP over time in uncontested areas (both GOP and Dem), which they explain away as rural votes taking longer to arrive, and steeply towards Dem in contested ones.

Given where this comes from, take it with a massive grain of salt - I can't vouch for veracity of the data. I'm attaching the CSV if anyone wants to verify/take a look.

2020_election_time_series.zip

Not linking the Twitter thread here, as it launches into several conspiracies which we here can neither confirm nor deny.

[1e100]

Correction - the "dem upward drift" is not observed in Arizona or Nevada, best I can tell. WI, PA, VA, GA, and MI show it quite clearly, however.

[1e100]

Examples:

GA

AZ

NV

PA

[1e100]

FL

WI (notice the "step" towards the end)

[charlesmartin14]

@1e100 I haven't dug into this data yet, but from the reporting I listened to, it appeared that kin the contested areas, the upwards dem drift was sometimes widely misbalanced towards Biden. This seemed like a red flag, and perhaps close to an example of what Klimick calls extreme fraud.

https://www.pnas.org/content/109/41/16469

[1e100]

I think it corresponds more to the phenomenon shown on Fig 6 in the paper you linked, that is, "not developing a plateau" of vote share for the winning candidate.

As an aside: Russia is such a great case study in election fraud. As a Russian-American, I can confirm there hasn't been a single non-falsified election in Russia since the 90s. In the 90s there was one, and then current president Yeltsin almost lost to a communist, so they brought in American consultants to "fix" the runoff. True story, read up on it. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1996-07-09-mn-22423-story.html. That "almost lost" election was the first and the last free and fair election in Russian history. Everyone knows it, and everyone enables it.

[charlesmartin14]

There may be insights here to look at:

https://www.ntd.com/statistical-anomalies-in-biden-votes-analyses-indicate_525974.html

[charlesmartin14]

@1e100 How many data points are in the time series?

[charlesmartin14]

And do we have data like this ? Votes per batch number ?

[charlesmartin14]

Here's a great plot from Wisconsin. I don't have the raw data yet...do we ?