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cjph8914 / 2020_benfords

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2BL test more appropiate for appropriate for election fraud #35

Open Enclavet opened 4 years ago

Enclavet commented 4 years ago

Just wanted to throw in my 2 cents considering this github is being used by some poeple on social media to advance their agenda. I'm probably gonna run 2BL tests unless someone already has. Just wanted to throw out this article also regarding the fallacy of using first-digit BL tests on election data:

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf

charlesmartin14 commented 4 years ago

@Enclavet That's a good find.

snex commented 4 years ago

I have been doing 2BL tests over at my repo https://github.com/snex/election_results_benford, just no fancy graphs.

I just uploaded a simulation (sim.rb) to run random-ish election results and while they don't conform perfectly to 2BL (sometimes I get >20.0 chi-squared test stat), most of the time they do conform and I have never gotten a result anywhere near some of the chi-squared numbers Biden seems to have in some places (e.g. Allegheny PA, DuPage IL).

Entirely possible that my simulation contains bad assumptions, but I am welcome to suggestions.