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Crafting Skill-up Chance #3274

Open wdstudios2 opened 1 year ago

wdstudios2 commented 1 year ago

Bug Details

On Blizzard servers, a particular recipe's chances of giving you a skillup slowly slide from 100% to 0%, with all values between 50% and 100% being yellow and all values between 50% and 0.00001% being green. For example, with a First Aid skill of 30, Linen Bandage has (I believe) a 100% of giving a skillup; this drops to:

96.67% at level 31 93.33% at 32 90% at 33 86.67% at 34 83.33% at 35 80% at 36 70% at 39 60% at 42 50% at 45 40% at 48 30% at 51 20% at 54 10% at 57 6.67% at 58 3.33% at level 59 and finally a 0% chance of a skillup at a First Aid level of 60

In cMangos, yellow is a flat 75% and green is a flat 25%. Are there any plans to correct this?

Steps to Reproduce

  1. craft items

Expected behavior

No response

Suggested Workaround

No response

Crash Log

No response

Core SHA1 Commit Hash

???

Database SHA1 Commit Hash

???

Operating System

Windows

Client Version

1.12.1 (Classic)

Warlockbugs commented 1 year ago

Some explanation found in a reddit post, however, the span of game versions it applies to is unknown as of yet (the post refers to BFA at the time it was written). Highly likely that this calculation was present from the very start, as i've encountered similarities with other skill based mechanics (such as hit chances) and magic resistance that i previously worked on. Thank you for bringing this to attention.

wdstudios2 commented 1 year ago

Blizzard recently gave me 7 free days of WoW time to try to get me hooked on Dragonflight. I decided to use it on Classic realms instead, and got video proof that flat percentages based on color are wrong:

https://www.mediafire.com/file/2s2wqf79h8yl8ib/WowClassic_linen_bandages.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/xkpe3m90uhl513e/WowClassic_smallfish.avi/file

For the linen bandages, it took 12 bandages to get through the first 5 green levels (45-50) and 29 bandages to get through the final 5 green levels (55-60). For the Brilliant Smallfish, It took 5 fish to get through the first 5 yellow levels (45-50), 11 fish to get through the last 5 yellow levels (60-65), and 14 to get through the first 5 green levels (65-70). The 17 smallfish that were cooked after hitting level 80 only succeeded in raising my cooking skill by 1 level.

While I can't prove that skillup chance decreases at a linear rate, it very obviously does so at a gradual one.

wdstudios2 commented 1 year ago

MOAR VIDEOS

https://www.sendspace.com/file/lxs32a

level 45-50: 5 fish (155-150) level 50-55: 8 fish (150-142) level 55-60: 8 fish (142-134) level 60-65: 8 fish (134-126) level 65-70: 11 fish (126-115) level 70-75: 28 fish (115-87) level 75-80: 45 fish (87-42) And then the last 42 fish only gave 3 skillups

This is exactly what we would expect from a linear decrease.

https://www.sendspace.com/file/0l9u7c https://www.sendspace.com/file/me3bh1

level 45-50: 5 fish (255-250) level 50-55: 7 fish (250-243) level 55-60: 12 fish (243-231) level 60-65: 6 fish (231-225) level 65-70: 18 fish (225-207) level 70-75: 21 fish (207-186) level 75-80: 45 fish (186-141) level 80-85: 114 fish (141-27)

Aside from that slightly unlucky streak from 55-60 followed by an insanely lucky streak from 60-65, this is exactly what we would expect from a linear decrease.

wdstudios2 commented 1 year ago

I heard that someone had an insane idea that primary crafting professions and secondary crafting professions might differ on this issue, so I farmed a few hundred Rough Stone and made three more videos:

https://www.mediafire.com/file/ur7w5t5ommj5fof/85_rough_blasting_powder.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/eil2ljq22fyi6pk/115_rough_blasting_powder.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/vx0tu44i29hidu9/rough_blasting_powder_III.avi/file

TABULATED RESULTS

Video 1: level 20-25: 5 rough stone (66-61) (100% skillup rate) level 25-30: 5 rough stone (61-56) (100% skillup rate) level 30-35: 11 rough stone (56-45) (45.5% skillup rate) level 35-39: 22 rough stone (45-23) (18.2% skillup rate) final 23 rough stone produced 0 skillups (0% skillup rate)

Video 2: level 20-25: 5 rough stone (95-90) (100% skillup rate) level 25-30: 7 rough stone (90-83) (71.4% skillup rate) level 30-35: 9 rough stone (83-74) (55.6% skillup rate) level 35-39: 8 rough stone (74-66) (50% skillup rate) level 35-40: 25 rough stone (74-49) (20% skillup rate) level 39-40: 17 rough stone (66-49) (5.9% skillup rate)

Video 3: level 20-25: 7 rough stone (96-89) (71.4% skillup rate) level 25-30: 8 rough stone (89-81) (62.5% skillup rate) level 30-35: 17 rough stone (81-64) (29.4% skillup rate) level 35-39: 31 rough stone (64-33) (12.9% skillup rate) level 35-40: 48 rough stone (64-16) (10.4% skillup rate) level 39-40: 17 rough stone (33-16) (5.9% skillup rate)

Average of 3 videos: level 20-25: 5+5+7 = 17 rough stone, 15/17= 88.2% skillup rate level 25-30: 5+7+8 = 20 rough stone, 15/20= 75% skillup rate level 30-35: 11+9+17 = 37 rough stone, 15/37= 40.5% skillup rate level 35-39: 22+8+31 = 61 rough stone, 12/61 = 19.7% skillup rate level 39-40: 23+17+17 = 57 rough stone, 2/57 = 3.5% skillup rate

Average of last 2 videos: level 35-40: 25+48=73 rough stone, 10/73= 13.7% skillup rate

wdstudios2 commented 1 year ago

COPPER-SMELTING VIDEOS!

https://www.mediafire.com/file/tqx4hnfw7sofrpa/smelting_copper_1_part_1.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/5tx7am0r2fqjd94/smelting_copper_1_part_2.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/vtvn1w7i7hh6o5l/smelting_copper_2_part_1.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/kp4lq3igz9vksrm/smelting_copper_2_part_2.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/qq9t414jrm6tm7t/smelting_copper_3.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/3mfrkynwdr96sun/smelting_copper_4.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/b800n0asvyra6o4/smelting_copper_5_part_1.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/m1vc51p9ekak8zf/smelting_copper_5_part_2.avi/file

AVERAGE OF FIVE RUNS level 25-30: (7+5+6+5+5)/5 = 5.6 copper (89.3% skillup rate) level 30-35: (6+8+6+6+6)/5 = 6.4 copper (78.1% skillup rate) level 35-40: (5+9+8+8+6)/5 = 7.2 copper (69.4% skillup rate) level 40-45: (6+6+8+11+8)/5 = 7.8 copper (64.1% skillup rate) level 45-50: (12+7+10+12+10)/5 = 10.2 copper (49.0% skillup rate) level 50-55: (20+12+12+11+8)/5 = 12.6 copper (39.7% skillup rate)

AVERAGE OF THREE RUNS level 55-60: (9+16+12)/3 = 12.33 copper (40.5% skillup rate) level 60-65: (19+44+32)/3 = 31.67 copper (15.8% skillup rate) level 65-70: (142+78+140)/3 = 120 copper (4.2% skillup rate)

wdstudios2 commented 1 year ago

So anyway, more rough blasting powder videos...

https://www.mediafire.com/file/3aimtnqq9vsq8di/rough_blasting_powder_4.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/b4f7qa3mn4mnnos/rough_blasting_powder_5.avi/file https://www.mediafire.com/file/tit80zh6r38nf99/rough_blasting_powder_6.avi/file

run 4 level 20-25: 5 rough stone (265-260) level 25-30: 5 rough stone (260-255) level 30-35: 12 rough stone (255-243) level 35-40: 35 rough stone (243-208)

run 5 level 20-25: 5 rough stone (207-202) level 25-30: 11 rough stone (202-191) level 30-35: 18 rough stone (191-173) level 35-40: 68 rough stone (173-105)

run 6 level 20-25: 5 rough stone (104-99) level 25-30: 7 rough stone (99-92) level 30-35: 7 rough stone (92-85) level 35-39: 30 rough stone (85-55) final 55 rough stone produced 0 skillups

Combined stats from all 6 videos:

level 20-25: (5+5+7+5+5+5)/6 = 5.33 rough stone; 5/5.33 = 93.75% skillup rate level 25-30: (5+7+8+5+11+7)/6 = 7.17 rough stone; 5/7.17 = 69.8% skillup rate level 30-35: (11+9+17+12+18+30)/6 = 16.17 rough stone; 5/16.17 = 30.9% skillup rate level 35-39: (22+8+31+31+44+30)/6 = 27.67 rough stone; 4/27.67 = 14.5% skillup rate level 35-40: Only 28 skillups / 306 stone consumed = 9.2% skillup rate level 39-40: Only 4 skillups / 140 stone consumed = 2.9% skillup rate

miraco commented 12 months ago

https://github.com/vmangos/core/issues/1753 https://github.com/vmangos/core/pull/2291 Just to have it here