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cmu-delphi / covidcast-indicators

Back end for producing indicators and loading them into the COVIDcast API.
https://cmu-delphi.github.io/delphi-epidata/api/covidcast.html
MIT License
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`doctor-visits-smoothed_adj_cli` has changed from little weekday pattern to clear weekday pattern #1914

Open brookslogan opened 9 months ago

brookslogan commented 9 months ago

Actual Behavior:

doctor-visits-smoothed_adj_cli switches from successfully avoiding overt weekday effects to failing to avoid weekday effects from around October 2023 onward; see here. Sunday appears to be the maximum each week, and Friday the minimum, with Fridays around 40% of the Sunday values.

Expected behavior

doctor-visits-smoothed_adj_cli adjusts for weekday effects, successfully.

Context

I was looking at the CDC COVID Data Tracker and COVIDcast dashboard to try to get some sense of where various potentially-leading indicators hint that COVID-19 hospitalizations are headed, to sanity-check some forecasts. The weekday effects are not an issue for this application but would be for someone training a forecasting model on this signal (which we might have done in the past and probably want to do in the future).

nmdefries commented 1 month ago

Need to figure out what could be done to address this -- presumably would need a new weekday-effects-removal model.