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cmu-delphi / exploration-tooling

tools for evaluating and exploring forecasters
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Compare smoothed scaling with legacy forecasters #93

Closed dsweber2 closed 5 months ago

dsweber2 commented 7 months ago

There is a persistent performance gap between the various dev* forecasters and the "smoothed scaling" forecasters (pseudopolitical.byzantium, polar.ergophobic, and pleasurable.nonmedical below). This is despite nominally using the same forecasting methods.

@brookslogan did the setup work to get single forecast comparisons between the two; the final versions of these scripts will either be included here or in covid-hosp-forecast.

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dsweber2 commented 5 months ago

The problem here was how the latency of chng was handled, making many forecasts way out of date.