Video on anecdotal evidence

[darwinrlo]

Personal experiences tell us what to test.

[darwinrlo]

If anecdotal evidence is contradicted by a study, then yes, throw it out.

If there is no study, then it can be the basis of a study. It has introduced a consideration that was not been taken by previous studies.

[darwinrlo]

• What is the role of personal experience?

• Option: Dismiss it. It is "anecdotal evidence."

• Option: Generalize it to other situations

• A study could put it into context, e.g.: That is true 5% of the time.

• Your understanding could be mistaken.

• You could realize there is a variable that has not been controlled for. Personal experience could invalidate studies.

[darwinrlo]

Draft 1

How does our personal experience factor into our decision-making?

People typically treat it in one of two ways. One, they might simply dismiss it, calling it "anecdotal evidence." Or two, they might over-generalize it, extending it to situations where it is not relevant.

Both extremes have pitfalls. All the studies in the world could show that all cars are red, but if you've seen a blue one, the studies are wrong. On the other side of the coin, all the cars you see on your daily commute may be blue, but studies could show that cars are only blue in half of the cities in your state.

Personal experience is more powerful than you might think. For example, by bringing to light a confounding variable that was not known and hence not controlled for, it has the power to invalidate studies done over large populations that took a lot of money to run. It may also give rise to a new explanation for a previously observed phenomenon that should be considered.

When there is an absence of relevant studies, conclusions derived from personal experience are a decent starting point. They can be refined by considering other perspectives, and once enough perspectives have been considered, the perspective you get from reconciling the different perspective could form the basis of a very well-designed study.