Steffen et al - Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet - Science (Feb 2015) + Update in 2020

[rufuspollock]

The planetary boundary (PB) concept defines the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate

2015 Science paper with data: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855

See earlier 2009 nature paper for the idea: https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a

Steffen et al - Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet - Science (Feb 2015)

... four of nine planetary boundaries have been crossed: climate change, loss of biosphere integrity, land-system change, altered biogeochemical cycles (phosphorus and nitrogen).

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855

The planetary boundary (PB) concept, introduced in 2009, aimed to define the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. This approach has proved influential in global sustainability policy development. Steffen et al. provide an updated and extended analysis of the PB framework. Of the original nine proposed boundaries, they identify three (including climate change) that might push the Earth system into a new state if crossed and that also have a pervasive influence on the remaining boundaries. They also develop the PB framework so that it can be applied usefully in a regional context.

[Conclusion] PBs are scientifically based levels of human perturbation of the ES beyond which ES functioning may be substantially altered. Transgression of the PBs thus creates substantial risk of destabilizing the Holocene state of the ES in which modern societies have evolved. The PB framework does not dictate how societies should develop. These are political decisions that must include consideration of the human dimensions, including equity, not incorporated in the PB framework. Nevertheless, by identifying a safe operating space for humanity on Earth, the PB framework can make a valuable contribution to decision-makers in charting desirable courses for societal development.

Data

Data associated with the paper are located at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden (http://www.stockholmresilience.org/21/research/research-programmes/planetary-boundaries.html).

Visiting that page: http://www.stockholmresilience.org/21/research/research-programmes/planetary-boundaries.html yields

[rufuspollock]

See also https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0

Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against

The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions.

Politicians, economists and even some natural scientists have tended to assume that tipping points1 in the Earth system — such as the loss of the Amazon rainforest or the West Antarctic ice sheet — are of low probability and little understood. Yet evidence is mounting that these events could be more likely than was thought, have high impacts and are interconnected across different biophysical systems, potentially committing the world to long-term irreversible changes.

Here we summarize evidence on the threat of exceeding tipping points, identify knowledge gaps and suggest how these should be plugged. We explore the effects of such large-scale changes, how quickly they might unfold and whether we still have any control over them.

In our view, the consideration of tipping points helps to define that we are in a climate emergency and strengthens this year’s chorus of calls for urgent climate action — from schoolchildren to scientists, cities and countries.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) introduced the idea of tipping points two decades ago. At that time, these ‘large-scale discontinuities’ in the climate system were considered likely only if global warming exceeded 5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Information summarized in the two most recent IPCC Special Reports (published in 2018 and in September this year)2,3 suggests that tipping points could be exceeded even between 1 and 2 °C of warming (see ‘Too close for comfort’).

[BastienGauthier]

By chance, I just found this issue. I collected the temporal evolution of these data recently here : https://github.com/BastienGauthier/planetary-flag

The data precision could still be improved drastically. I contacted some of the authors of the last papers related to the planetary boundaries to include the best status available, but any help is welcomed if you have another data source.

[rufuspollock]

@BastienGauthier thanks for sharing ...

We'd love to create a "core" dataset for that here in github.com/datasets - would we be able to reuse your data?

[BastienGauthier]

Sure ! Keep in mind that the data set is still a work in progress though. The data is structured with a excel file today, which is quite bad to have a proper follow-up, but I guess you may have a better idea than me here (split in csv / json files ?).

[rufuspollock]

Sure ! Keep in mind that the data set is still a work in progress though. The data is structured with a excel file today, which is quite bad to have a proper follow-up, but I guess you may have a better idea than me here (split in csv / json files ?).

CSV files would be perfect.