[Bug] --select state:modified does not pick up changes to node `depends_on` values

[MichelleArk]

Is this a new bug in dbt-core?

• [X] I believe this is a new bug in dbt-core
• [X] I have searched the existing issues, and I could not find an existing issue for this bug

Current Behavior

Given a model with environment-based dependencies:

select 1 as id

{% if target.name == "prod" %}
    -- depends_on : {{ ref('data_change_model') }}
{% else %}
    -- depends_on : {{ ref('column_added_model') }}
{% endif %}select 1 as id

{% if target.name == "prod" %}
    -- depends_on : {{ ref('data_change_model') }}
{% else %}
    -- depends_on : {{ ref('column_added_model') }}
{% endif %}

given a prod (deferred) and dev manifest, dbt does not pick this up as a modified node in state:modified because it does not consider the node's depends_on (most often this is proxied by the node body contents)

Expected Behavior

dbt picks up the modified model between prod & dev runs as the depends_on have changed

Steps To Reproduce

1. dbt run --target prod
2. cp target/manifest state
3. dbt ls --select state:modified --state state

Relevant log output

No response

Environment

- OS:
- Python:
- dbt:

Which database adapter are you using with dbt?

other (mention it in "Additional Context")

Additional Context

No response