Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe.
The profit predictions are a bit misleading for maps with rare divination cards like Crimson Temple (The Apothecary).
As an example let's take The Fortunate as index card at 2 cards per map. This will result in a 210c profit per map prediction for Crimson Temple, ranking it as the most profitable map to run. The Apothecary at drop rate of 1/103 will provide 68c part of profit per map.
However, at a drop rate of 1/103, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary would be (102/103)^n, so
At 40 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~67%.
At 60 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~45%.
At 103 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~36%.
At 165 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~20%
At 309 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~5%
While it is true that Crimson Temple is most profitable to run when we average over an infinite set of attempts, the picture is quite a bit different in smaller sets.
Describe the solution you'd like
I would like a field where user can input the count of maps they intend to run. Could also be a dropdown with predefined numbers.
Then adjust the estimated earnings by reducing rare cards (ones that are 1/m chance to drop) profit portions according to the chance of them not dropping.
For the above example, if user inputs 40 as intended run size, I think it is fair to either not include The Apothecary profits at all, or at least reduce them by 67%.
Add an visual warning/explanation for the user that the profits prediction may be inaccurate due to too low set size.
Describe alternatives you've considered
Maybe instead of a single profit estimation number there could be several numbers like "Lucky/Average/Unlucky".
Where "Lucky" would be earnings estimated with 2/m card drop probability, and unlucky would be 1/2m.
Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe. The profit predictions are a bit misleading for maps with rare divination cards like Crimson Temple (The Apothecary).
As an example let's take The Fortunate as index card at 2 cards per map. This will result in a 210c profit per map prediction for Crimson Temple, ranking it as the most profitable map to run. The Apothecary at drop rate of 1/103 will provide 68c part of profit per map.
However, at a drop rate of 1/103, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary would be (102/103)^n, so At 40 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~67%. At 60 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~45%. At 103 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~36%. At 165 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~20% At 309 attempts, the odds of not dropping The Apothecary are ~5%
While it is true that Crimson Temple is most profitable to run when we average over an infinite set of attempts, the picture is quite a bit different in smaller sets.
Describe the solution you'd like I would like a field where user can input the count of maps they intend to run. Could also be a dropdown with predefined numbers. Then adjust the estimated earnings by reducing rare cards (ones that are 1/m chance to drop) profit portions according to the chance of them not dropping. For the above example, if user inputs 40 as intended run size, I think it is fair to either not include The Apothecary profits at all, or at least reduce them by 67%.
Add an visual warning/explanation for the user that the profits prediction may be inaccurate due to too low set size.
Describe alternatives you've considered
Maybe instead of a single profit estimation number there could be several numbers like "Lucky/Average/Unlucky". Where "Lucky" would be earnings estimated with 2/m card drop probability, and unlucky would be 1/2m.
Additional context