Week 9 Questions: The future

[deholz]

Questions for Martin Rees.

[lubaishao]

Is there an effective way to make politicians pay more attention to the threats posed by climate change and biodiversity loss, which require global cooperation and long-term measures?

[timok15]

As you probably know, there was a small risk that the Trinity test would ignite the atmosphere and cause a worldwide catastrophe. I think of events where there is a possibility, even if small, of such an apocalyptic catastrophe as Trinity-type events.

When you consider existential risk, how do these Trinity-type events factor into your thinking and assessments? How do you factor in the possibility that the group working towards this Trinity-type event pushes forward despite concerns, not because all the physics calculations (or the analogs thereof) are in their favor, but because of other more selfish/shortsighted pressures?

[M-Hallikainen]

In your writing you discuss how global inequalities, both between and within nations, exacerbate and compound pre-existing existential threats. Do you think inequality has reached a point that it might be considered an existential threat in its own right? How might we best address inequality when considering the long term future?

[miansimmons]

In your writings, you recommend that nations give more sovereignty to new organizations like the WHO. The COVID-19 pandemic illustrated that the WHO, drained of power and resources, found it difficult to navigate the pandemic and faced criticism regarding its approach. Given that many countries are wary of giving international organizations more power, how likely is it that nations will grant them additional authority to handle crisis?

[AnikSingh1]

Is there a chance big problems could create unity in society to combat it? OR are we so focused on our own short-term solutions that we can't visualize a future where human unity can help to fight it? (Assuming human unity is even a requirement for these kinds of issues, which I assume it is but curious to hear your perspective!)

[oliviaegross]

How does the understanding of our evolutionary history and the vast timeline of the universe impact our perception of humanity's place in the cosmic timeline, and what implications does this perspective have for our potential future and how we cope with what is not known?

[DNT21711]

How do you envision the role of emerging technologies, such as AI and biotechnology, in both exacerbating and mitigating existential threats? Additionally, what strategies do you propose to balance the rapid advancement of these technologies with the need for global governance and ethical considerations?

[ldbauer1011]

You write that global inequality is a key problem that needs addressing to combat existential threats. What are ways that states and individuals can help reduce global income inequalities? Is this something we can all contribute to, or is this something that we need to rely upon states to combat in our stead?

[Hai1218]

Considering the unpredictability of existential threats and the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, how can we create adaptable and resilient strategies to mitigate future global crises, recognizing our limitations in predicting and addressing these challenges effectively?

[imilbauer]

You write about being a technological optimist but a political pessimist. With regard to technology, you see technologies including AI as having the potential to benefit much broader swaths of society. With regard to politics, you note the concentration of wealth. Still, much of existential risk thinking is predicated on technological concerns, such as, at the extreme, the fear that non-aligned AI could go rogue. And there are less extreme forms of technological pessimism, such as, AI may further entrench stratification through mechanisms such as unemployment. Is it possible to be a technological optimist when technology can be used to negative social and political ends? How can society encourage the proliferation of technology as a force for good as opposed to a force used to increase stratification?

[lucyhorowitz]

Over the course of the quarter, it's become more and more apparent that we talk about existential risk in the context of four categories: AI, nuclear, climate, and bio, with some crossover and comparisons to be made. Does this division give us the whole picture? Does sticking with it or living with it have the potential to make us less prepared for or blind to an unexpected existential threat that somehow doesn't belong to any of these four categories?

[tosinOO]

How can we better educate young people on existential crisis? How can we get more people to care and sift through the nonsensical information? Is it even possible for us to get people to make a habit out of critical thinking?

[agupta818]

In your interview you said that "it’s a difficult ask to get politicians to commit resources and time and effort to these long-term global issues when they obviously have urgent parochial ones." Do you see a scenario where the long-term issue outweighs the current urgent issue, especially given the slow pace of passing any meaningful legislation in most countries that leads politicians to prioritize one issue over an other rather than address them all.

[ghagle]

Very simple question:

What are you actually optimistic about that maybe, while I'm not now, I should be optimistic about too?

[briannaliu]

In your interview with Rachel Bronson, you say, “My real nightmare is some crazy individual who thinks that human beings are far too numerous and are polluting the planet. Someone with that mindset, that extremist attitude with biotech expertise, could readily say, “Let’s just release a biological weapon.””

How do you believe we can prevent such an event?

[cbgravitt]

Many of your works demonstrate the importance of clear channels of communication between scientists and politicians. In your interview with Rachel Bronson, the topic of scientists communicating with the public came up briefly. How much power do you think the public wields when it comes to combatting existential threats moving forward, and how can they best leverage that power?

[jamaib]

During your interview with Rachel Bronson you speak on the necessity of "charismatic" individuals to convince the public of the importance of combating existential risks. Who are some "charismatic" individuals making an impact right now, or who do you think has the potential to be one of those change-makers in the near future?

[WPDolan]

In both your article in The Independent , you highlight technology as both a driver of existential risk and a mechanism to reduce it. To what degree can humanity realistically be protected from technologically driven risks? Are these risks here to stay and inherent to technological development, or do you believe that there is a possible future in which humanity is sufficiently protected against all technological risks?

[summerliu1027]

If we want to accomplish long-term effective precautions and solutions, how do we convince present and future generations to dedicate their energy and resources to these projects?

[mibr4601]

You mention that the main reason that bioweapons have not been used in warfare is that they are not controllable. If someone did take the attitude that there are too many humans, what could the potential damage look like?

[AudreyPScott]

One astronomer to another, I’d love to hear more about how your cosmic perspectives turned back to humanity — how the science most people see as the most alien to our lives propelled you to these questions. Additionally, on the topic of stewardship and examining the effects of your science, what are your thoughts on the continued physics major-to-private weapons manufacturer pipeline?

[madsnewton]

You mention David Attenborough’s narration on Blue Planet 2 and the awareness of plastic pollution that stemmed from that. To what extent do you think these public figures can influence policy? Do you think public figures have an obligation to influence public opinion about existential threats?

[gabrielmoos]

What is the largest amplifier of existential risk? I believe it is either dis/misinformation or unfettered corporate lobbying.

[aaron-wineberg02]

Are there any risks that should be considered that are beyond human control (other than bio). Such as asteroids and solar flares?

[Daniela-miaut]

I saw in your articles that you stress a lot the importance of giving politicians long-term guarantee of support. Does that mean you would still trust politicians and the current political system? I would like to hear more about your opinion on this.

[maevemcguire]

What has your career as the Royal Astronomer has taught you about what steps, actions, and roles governments and politicians should play in confronting existential threats – as well as what some potential obstacles to this might be?

[kallotey]

Other than the four existential risks we primarily discuss in class (nuclear, climate, AI, biological) can you envision us having to shift gears to other threats such as astronomical ones? Or are you pretty confident in our satellites to detect incoming asteroids and our ability to respond accordingly?