Firms analysis - registry data

[MariaArnalCanudo]

Data on taxes - firm registry data

We use data on firm registry from Honduras, Brazil and Croatia (to check the origin of this dataset) to look at the firm survival during COVID times. We assume if firms pay taxes, they exit.

• Analysis could distinct between larger firms and SMEs. Some countries such as Honduras approved norms that allow firms to defer their payments and VAT during the lockdown in 2020. However, it is difficult to know whether firms re-opened again or shut down after the lockdown if there is not data from the second half of 2020.
• Did the government suppliers had more chance to exit contrary to the firms that did not supply to government? (if data allow us to combine registry data and procurement data).
• Analysis can be done by demographic areas, firms from cities might have more chance to survive than from rural areas.
• Ideally, we would need registry data that cover the same period than procurement data, from 2015/2016 through 2021.
• A categorization of firms might be needed between those firms that appear at least one and those firms that appears several times.
• We could look at the effects of COVID in employment and waves as indicator of firm survival
• Examine whether the link between winning a government contract and firm growth and survival was different depending on whether the contract was won or executed before or during the Covid-19 crisis.

[serenacocciolo]

ideas for analysis for honduras on the matched procurement + tax registry data:

• main characteristics of suppliers - covid vs non covid times
• how suppliers are different from non-suppliers? - covid vs non covid times
• effect of contracting with the government on future (short, 1 lear) firm level outcomes - covid vs non covid times

firm level outcomes:

• yearly revenues
• exit?

tax registry: we would need the most updated data possible for this analysis (tax registry data from 2021?), especially for research question n. 3 (future firm level outcomes = 2021 outcomes for procurement contracts during the covid crisis in 2020)