Tune/correct vaccine predictions (esp 40 day avg vaccine gap)

djay / covidthailand

Thailand Covid testing and case data gathered and combined from various sources for others to download or view

126 stars 15 forks source link

Tune/correct vaccine predictions (esp 40 day avg vaccine gap) #182

Open djay opened 2 years ago

djay commented 2 years ago

Currently set to avg 40days regardless of group. This is just a guess though based on pf 3 weeks, AZ 90days and SV + AZ 30 days. Could possibly match the group to the gap for example over 60 are likely all AZ. Students are all pf

In addition a survey says 90% rather than 100% of thais will get vaccinated and the closer you get to the max the slower the progress. Both of these could be factored into predictions

djay commented 2 years ago

shows how it throws out the predictions. Students get pfizer which is 21 day gap but the 40day gap being used shows they will reach 100% 2nd dose before 100% first dose.