August revision feature list

[djgroen]

In this issue, I am going to list all the things we would like to update in FACS this time around:

• [ ] Develop new scenarios for opening up, or local lockdown.
• [x] Update existing PHI's:
  • [x] Partial school reopening on June 1st (50% primary school)
  • [x] Test and tracing effective June 1st, ramped up to 130k by end of the month (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/nhs-test-and-trace-contacts-more-than-130000-people) 1b571642a5ec1b06db6d4159a3fe862ff87fcf6d
  • [ ] June 15th, secondary schools offer face to face contact (https://schoolsweek.co.uk/schools-will-reopen-on-june-1-prime-minister-confirms/)
  • [x] June 15th, face masks compulsory on public transport
  • [x] June 15th, non-essential retail reopens
  • [x] July 1st, flexible furlough (some workers brought back)
  • [x] July 4th, pubs, restaurants and hairdressers reopen.
  • [ ] July 6th, quarantine restrictions lifted for many foreign countries.
  • [x] Outdoor gyms and playgrounds open July 11th
  • [x] Face masks compulsory in shops as of July 14th
  • [x] Beauty salons etc. open July 13th
  • [x] Indoor gyms and pools open July 25th
• [x] Incorporating latest findings scientifically on airborne transmission and masks.
  • airborne transmission: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1777906
  • [x] masks: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext 1b571642a5ec1b06db6d4159a3fe862ff87fcf6d
  • [x] reduced odds for outside transmission: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2 5ac131b8fed3f4dbe22750ed869844a5e4a50aac
• [x] Updating mortality rates, see #2 d55c2b9f8e81d3ad0c0e60f5fdd7edaa26a6ac61
• [ ] Developing a better model for social distance compliance?
• [x] Output individual deaths and recoveries #5 efc19f3c67d040886d23cb8d04ed67f14b3c1a47
• [ ] Develop explicit model for interactions in pubs, restaurants, and inter-household indoor visits (the first two are currently implicit in leisure, and the last one is not in the model yet).
• [x] Added more realistic transport multipliers for June/July and after (it now goes up from 10% to 20%). 7ac4469c23ce763d4cc26fdbf29b6b1e2909d8ce

[djgroen]

On the PHIs, I incorporated new phases:

Phase 5 - June 1st

• Partial school reopening on June 1st (50% primary school)

Phase 6 - June 15th

• June 15th, secondary schools offer face to face contact (https://schoolsweek.co.uk/schools-will-reopen-on-june-1-prime-minister-confirms/)
• June 15th, face masks compulsory on public transport
• June 15th, non-essential retail reopens

Phase 7 - July 4th

• July 1st, flexible furlough (some workers brought back) -> Here I now assume 50% still works from home?
• July 4th, pubs, restaurants and hairdressers reopen.

Phase 8 - July 15th

• Outdoor gyms and playgrounds open July 11th
• Face masks compulsory in shops as of July 14th
• Beauty salons etc. open July 13th
• Indoor gyms and pools open July 25th

The following measures have not been reflected in the code yet:

• Test and tracing effective June 1st, ramped up to 130k by end of the month (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/nhs-test-and-trace-contacts-more-than-130000-people)
• July 6th, quarantine restrictions lifted for many foreign countries.

See commits: 659b597414091a2bc92ac97f1401131c6b77d638 and 993786e6c18dfb8822e0a20296f19bc0a2270f0f

[djgroen]

(I still have to write a few functions to actually plug in the functionalities though).

[djgroen]

Track and tracing is now added as a static multiplier for case isolation effectiveness.

It's in Ecosystem.track_trace_multiplier. The value is 1.0 is 100% of cases escape the track and trace system, and 0.0 if 0% escape the track and trace system. I set the value at 0.8 on June 1st, gradually decreasing it to 0.3 by July 15th.