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dmcalli2 / covid19_yll_final

Years of life lost in Covid-19
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Correction for obesity? #1

Closed nradov closed 4 years ago

nradov commented 4 years ago

While the analysis corrects for some comorbidities, I didn't see any mention of obesity. After age, obesity appears to be the most significant risk factor for severe COVID-19 symptoms. And obesity also reduces life expectancy. Is it possible that this causes YLL to be overestimated? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794v1

dmcalli2 commented 4 years ago

Possibly, but I think it is unlikely to have a large effect for three reasons:-

  1. The RR for obesity on mortality is not that large
  2. We have measures of some of the downstream effects of obesity, hypertension and diabetes
  3. Obesity is already pretty common in the population, therefore it is, to this extent, included in the survival model

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From: Nick Radov notifications@github.com Sent: Sunday, May 3, 2020 2:26:51 AM To: dmcalli2/covid19_yll_final covid19_yll_final@noreply.github.com Cc: Subscribed subscribed@noreply.github.com Subject: [dmcalli2/covid19_yll_final] Correction for obesity? (#1)

While the analysis corrects for some comorbidities, I didn't see any mention of obesity. After age, obesity appears to be the most significant risk factor for severe COVID-19 symptoms. And obesity also reduces life expectancy. Is it possible that this causes YLL to be overestimated? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794v1

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nradov commented 4 years ago

Obesity by itself does have a significant impact on YLL. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30283076/ https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001673

dmcalli2 commented 4 years ago

It is the HR that matters for the modelling. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4855514https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4855514/

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Obesity by itself does have a significant impact on YLL. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30283076/ https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001673

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dmcalli2 commented 4 years ago

Decided to direct scientific discussion (rather than coding etc related) to the journal comments section