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dreeves / bibliophilia

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Situational Awareness, by Leopold Aschenbrenner (2024) #48

Open dreeves opened 4 months ago

dreeves commented 4 months ago

https://situational-awareness.ai/

Theo Spears calls it "an interesting resource for laypeople".

Cognata

Verbata: ai risk, ai alignment, rationality,

dreeves commented 4 months ago

This is the AI prognostication tour de force everyone's been talking about, by a former member of the OpenAI Superalignment team, laying out the argument that AGI is close. Like drop-in remote workers this decade. He also spends a lot of time on how governments are about to wake up to all this and we're going to be in a massive race with China and that it's critical that the free world win that race.

(I believe that Rational Consensus is that there's a chance Aschenbrenner is right but that there's a long list of reasons to think he's over-bullish. Like how extrapolating these trend lines means producing drastically more electricity than the world can currently produce. Aschenbrenner's counterargument is that when the demand is there, including investors willing to pour in billions or trillions of dollars, capitalism does its thing and the power plants get built.)