Reliability diagram is connecting points incorrectly

[bikegeek]

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Describe the Problem

Using PCT linetype output supplied by NOAA for HREF and RRFS model produces a plot that doesn't appear consistent with what is expected:

The connection of points leading to the triangular shape in the upper portion of the plot is the region of inconsistency. This could potentially be an issue with the METcalcpy agg_stat.py that gives rise to this irregular behavior.

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[bikegeek]

Binbin made the following observation, which might help in tracking down the cause of this issue:

One thing that reminds me is HREF is a 10-member ensemble while RRFSENS is a 14-member ensemble. I looked closely at the reliability diagram and found that the last point of one model is located at the top (top point of the triangle). That point is far away from the model curve. Not sure why the last point is located at that place. Are both treated as a 10-member ensemble? I'll follow the discussion and provide further information If I find it.

[BinbinZhou-NOAA]

To identify if the issue is related to the multiple models, remove one of models, and generate the reliability diagram for just one model to see this issue is still there.

Binbin