Doesn't seem to be making very intelligent statistical decisions?

[abletaz]

When I started it up, it just placed loans for all the available BTC at the going rate of around 1%, and looking at the site a minute later it looked like one could get loans at 1.3% if it had waited a minute ..... curious what kind of logic is being applied, as doesn't appear to be very optimal from first glance ...

[dutu]

Statistical calculation is on past data (loans taken and average loan holding time). It's impossible for any bot or human to predict future spikes

[abletaz]

well past data would indicate that in the last day or two it was as high as 1%, so, again, the claim for this bot is supposed to be that it's looking at a wider history window than right now, but it really doesn't appear to be based on my initial impression, so I'd appreciation a little more openness for discussion than your quick dismissal + closing of this item.

[abletaz]

Ah, correction - when I said 1% + 1.3% in the initial comment, that was an error, I meant 0.1% + 0.13% (vs the 1% seen within the last couple of days and 0.4%-0.5% seen yesterday), hence my doubt that the best decision (loan immediately at the going rate) was the optimal decision vs holding-out for a higher rate.

[abletaz]

I mean, it seems to have actually placed new loans as I write lower than the lowest offer (somewhere between lowest offer and highest bid), whereas I've always found placing at the lower offer (or above) tends to fill rather quickly ... so even ignoring considering historical statistics, it hardly seems to be close to being very optimal.

[dutu]

@abletaz, the best loan is calculated based on the average loan holding time, e.g.. if the average holding time is 30 minutes, the bot calculates how much is worth waiting for a higher rate. with such short average holding time the bot usual waits only a couple of minutes. When the average holding time is longer (let's say 24 hours), the bot will wait considerably longer time for higher rates.

Hope this makes sense

[abletaz]

Yes, that does make sense, at least, it definitely does if, when the loans are closed real quick, you receive a whole 1 day worth of interest? This is something I've been trying to find documented somewhere but can't?

[dutu]

you get the interest for the period loan was open, not the whole day. This is why, for short holding times, it is not worth waiting long for higher rate. The probability for the loan to be release quick is high, hence it is better to lend even at lower rate. Optimal waiting time and rate is mathematically calculated