econ-ark / HARK

Heterogenous Agents Resources & toolKit
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slickly designed mortality #847

Open sbenthall opened 4 years ago

sbenthall commented 4 years ago

Topic came up in #836 , related to #798

As we transition to a slick "frame" based design (abolishing the state/poststate distinction, etc.), we have the opportunity to rethink the way agents are born and die within simulations.

We will also have the opportunity to try to provide elegant and flexible options for modelers who are interested in different mortality models.

@mnwhite has a proposal in #836 which is that in simulation, "births" can happen at the start of a period, and "deaths" can happen at the end as a form of final shock. That's a possibility worth talking about, I think.

sbenthall commented 4 years ago

Thinking over the previous discussion, I have a couple points to add.

First, from the perspective of the model definition:

There are many open questions, I think, about how we implement the "magic solver" over problem defined as a sequence of frames.

On the simulation side, the death variable is important for modeling population aggregates. It may effect descriptive statistics of the population, or it may effect partial equilibria as an exogenous shock on each individual. I believe these are the easy cases. As they are relatively easy, I think it would be possible to support a wider range of birth/death models besides the fixed population model, which is motivated by a computer memory constraint but not a scientific modeling constraint.

sbenthall commented 4 years ago

An example of a variable mortality model is the additional role of simDeath in the ConsAggShockModel. In that model, wealth of the dead are redistributed to the living.

So the mortality model at least potentially operates at an 'aggregate' level, outside of an individual's MDP.

sbenthall commented 3 years ago

ping @alanlujan91 since he mentioned in a meeting an interest in something like this