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RPH estimates (Risk Per Hour) #3

Closed ashlinrichardson closed 3 years ago

ashlinrichardson commented 3 years ago

Hi Ash: These were computed by hand....

RPH stands for Risk Per Hour, but here's how it goes...in a Universe, if the first ten infections as recorded in the console.log took place in X hours (just find the 10th infection in Universe U and its generation number), then the metrics are either:

   10/X which is the number of infections per hour (there being X hours)
   X/10 which is the number of generations between each infection on average

So we chose this metric X/10 which is a large integer rather than a small decimal... We have now come to call this metric "theta"

with theta-10 being the generation space for 1st ten, theta-20 for the 1st 20, etc..

Note that theta-20 can be calculated two ways:

from 1st to 20th infection and the total generations: this is Theta-20

from gen of 10th infection to gen of 20th infection / 10 = theta-20 this is an incremental theta and has some sensitivity compared to other infection spans - ie is it taking longer for the next ten, or shorter, on average? this shows us how the epidemic is moving....

These needed me to calculate them by hand, since the console.log data were not being captured, but printed out....

Ernie