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ellisp / nz-election-forecast

Probabilitstic prediction model for the New Zealand general election
GNU General Public License v3.0
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uncertainty re house effects #4

Open ellisp opened 7 years ago

ellisp commented 7 years ago

See http://stoppress.co.nz/features/newshub-polling re changing methodologies. Also even without that perhaps variance in the estimates of house effects should be added to the variance of the point estimates at the final stage.

ellisp commented 7 years ago

This is somewhat resolved if we use the state space model, which is more rigorous and coherent in treating the whole thing at once.