ensignlee / ssbook

ssbook
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Breakeven winning % is calculating incorrectly again #100

Closed ensignlee closed 13 years ago

ensignlee commented 13 years ago

If you look at my entire bet history, you'll see that it says my average odds at +154, but my breakeven winning % is 45%.

These two pieces of data are not compatible. Unless we're doing some sort of weighted average calc (which I'm pretty sure we're not), then the breakeven winning % is wrong.

Formula should be:

=IF(U16>0 THEN 100/(100+U16) ELSE -U16/(-U16+100))

Where U is the average odds. I'm going to look into this some more and try to figure out if the winning % is off or if the average odds are off.

P.S. Weird thing is, if I filter down to certain bets, like my 2nd Half NFL system, it's calculating correctly.

ensignlee commented 13 years ago

It seems like each calculation is just leaving out some games sometimes. Could this have to do with the whole "game date = 0" thing we were talking about earlier?

For instance, if you filter down to my games on 11/25 only, the average odds is correct at +129, but the breakeven winning % is 46%. The REAL breakeven winning % should be 43.67%.

Or Could it be that bets without tags dont' get calculated correctly or something?

camerondavison commented 13 years ago
OddsBE
2330.3003003003003
-1230.551569506726457

Average odds : 155 Average odds BE: 0.392156862745098

If you actually average the break even winning percentages together: 0.425934903513379

from this whole ticket I am going to assume that you want the average odds BE. Is that what everyone wants? Does the name need to be changed to average odds BE?

camerondavison commented 13 years ago

use avg odds to calc avg BE. closed by e57f57b81f65632f44724c3572c9a1683df7609a