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epiforecasts / covid-us-forecasts

Forecasting Covid-19 in the US
https://epiforecasts.io/covid-us-forecasts/submissions/report.html
MIT License
8 stars 3 forks source link

Update update-conv.R #104

Closed seabbs closed 3 years ago

seabbs commented 3 years ago

Reduce the convolution fitting window from 4 weeks to 3 as vaccination is likely shifting the CFR. Ideally this would be tested but looks pretty clear there is a problem from looking at the last few weeks of forecasts.

seabbs commented 3 years ago

(I pinged you @kathsherratt but you on AL so no expectation you do anything. @nikosbosse heavy expectation 😆 )

nikosbosse commented 3 years ago

is the idea to review and merge tonight?

seabbs commented 3 years ago

nah no rush don't need it until next week. It is an integer being changed though... 😄

nikosbosse commented 3 years ago

I guess best we can do is try it out? I'd be lying if I said that I had a thorough abstract understanding of all the implications

seabbs commented 3 years ago

ah damn, this didn't get merged in last week. 😿