Contains models and tools to produce short-term forecasts for both case and sequence notifications assuming circulation of either one or two variants. Tools are also provided to allow the evaluation of the use of sequence data for short-term forecasts in both real-world settings and in user generated scenarios.
Currently both models use a latent variable structure where the expectation of cases is used to model the current expectation of cases. For the single variable model this is not required (but may be desirable in some situations) and instead a direct model can be used (more comparable to a classical AR model). This is likely to be much easier to compute and to be more stable to fit.
Currently both models use a latent variable structure where the expectation of cases is used to model the current expectation of cases. For the single variable model this is not required (but may be desirable in some situations) and instead a direct model can be used (more comparable to a classical AR model). This is likely to be much easier to compute and to be more stable to fit.