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epiforecasts / simplified-forecaster-evaluation

Evaluation of a simplified forecasting model designed to emulate the performance of the ECDC forecasting hub.
https://epiforecasts.io/simplified-forecaster-evaluation/paper.pdf
MIT License
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How to say a model is liable to underpredict. #15

Closed seabbs closed 2 years ago

seabbs commented 2 years ago

As Johannes mentioned a while ago: It is a priori unclear what the "correct" distribution of overprediction, underprediction and dispersion is. So I think it is technically not correct to talk about a bias towards over / underprediction. Adding here as a comment because it might be relevant throughout. We could look at the bias value from scoringutils.

seabbs commented 2 years ago

I think this has more clarity now.