Sample text to accompany SLCF emissions charts

[rolyp]

• [x] Collect some paragraphs from Chapter 6 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from Working Group 1 (WG1)
• [x] Identify bits that can link with chart selected in #47 (see #38 for details about making legend entries clickable)
• [ ] Add paragraphs as is or reduced into #47
• [ ] Describe other features that can be seen in causes/types of methane emissions in #47

Some paragraphs/sentences that are relevant:

Without climate change mitigation but with stringent air pollution control (SSP5-8.5)

At the same time, the SSP scenarios without climate change mitigation project faster growth in methane emissions in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America (Figure 6.19) driven by developments in agriculture, the oil and gas sectors, and, especially in Africa, waste management.

After 2050, surface ozone concentrations decrease in SSP5-8.5, reaching levels below their 2005–2014 mean levels in most regions, but level off or continue to increase under SSP3-7.0. The increase in surface ozone in the SSP5-8.5 scenario occurs despite an emissions decrease of several ozone precursors because the methane emissions increase until about 2080 in the absence of climate change mitigation.

In SSP5-8.5, methane emissions increase in North America, Europe and Africa, while there is a decrease in the Asian regions. For North America and Europe, the methane increase combined with a reduction in aerosol leads to highest net contribution to GSAT in this scenario (0.06°C and 0.04°C in 2100, respectively). The high growth in methane makes Africa the region with the largest contribution to future warming by SLCFs (0.18°C in 2100 versus 2020) in this scenario.

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Paragraph or two referring either to the charts we intend to use for #38, or their underlying data.

[rolyp]

@JosephBond @RaoOfPhysics Achintya will be able to shed some more light on this but are looking mainly at Fig. 6.19 at the moment because we have the data for it, and it’s reasonable size in a format we can read. Achintya is planning to identify a couple of paragraphs that reference this figure (or perhaps the data underlying the figure), for example p. 881 contains text like (some of which refer to Fig. 6.18, but they are still illustrative):

Global emissions of carbonaceous aerosols are projected to decline in all SSP scenarios (Figure 6.18) except SSP3‐7.0. In that scenario, which also has much higher emissions than any of the RCPs, about half of the anthropogenic BC originates from cooking and heating on solid fuels, mostly in Asia and Africa (Figure 6.19),

Here I’ve emphasised the “quantitative phrases” of the kind we could think about targeting:

• Does “projected” mean “from 2024 onwards”?
• Is “global emissions” some kind of computed aggregrate?
• How much higher is “much higher”?

Potentially we could think of strings like “Asia” and and “cooking and heating on solid fuels” as views of parameters which might also induce related things in other charts, etc.

Finally, we should probably pay attention to when these phrases are (implicitly) referring to the figures themselves (providing some kind of further summarisation) or to the underlying data. The former is a new use case for us, because so far all figures are outputs. But it doesn’t seem unreasonable that other downstream outputs might consume figures, taking a conclusion derived via a figure and doing something else with it.

[rolyp]

@JosephBond Unfortunately the IPCC website is an ergonomic disaster, it’s quite to find the documents in question. Try https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1, under Full Report click on Downloads.