facebook / prophet

Tool for producing high quality forecasts for time series data that has multiple seasonality with linear or non-linear growth.
https://facebook.github.io/prophet
MIT License
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forecasting growth example dataset looking very different from documentation #2549

Open ChristelSwift opened 9 months ago

ChristelSwift commented 9 months ago

in the Prophet documentation there's an example on forecasting growth using a cap value, linking to the example_wp_log_peyton_manning.csv dataset: https://facebook.github.io/prophet/docs/saturating_forecasts.html#forecasting-growth

When I run this example, I get a very different time series..

This is what is in the online documentation:

df <- read.csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/facebook/prophet/main/examples/example_wp_log_peyton_manning.csv')
df$cap <- 8.5
m <- prophet(df, growth = 'logistic')
future <- make_future_dataframe(m, periods = 1826)
future$cap <- 8.5
fcst <- predict(m, future)
plot(m, fcst)
image

and this is what i get when i run that exact same code:

image

Has there been a change in the dataset on github since the document was rendered?

ChristelSwift commented 9 months ago

UPDATE: i think the link in the documentation is wrong. It should link to this dataset instead: example_wp_log_R.csv