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facebook / prophet

Tool for producing high quality forecasts for time series data that has multiple seasonality with linear or non-linear growth.
https://facebook.github.io/prophet
MIT License
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How can I know if a dataseet can be forecasted by Prophet #2604

Open maxlelyonais opened 3 months ago

maxlelyonais commented 3 months ago

Hello Community, I have been searching and trying different types of datasheets. Some of them gave me a reasonable ratio of error, but others are really high. For instance this file gave me 112% of error, so the model is useless for this example. ProductName(1).csv

GabrielOttdeMedeiros commented 3 weeks ago

@maxlelyonais I know it has been a while since you posted this question, but I wanted to share a few thoughts regarding Prophet and predictions:

  1. You can transform numbers using either the natural logarithm or logarithm base 10. This method has consistently improved Prophet's performance with the data I've worked with.

  2. Feel free to experiment with the hyperparameters. For a better understanding of which parameters to adjust and when to tune them, I recommend referring to the documentation found here: https://facebook.github.io/prophet/docs/diagnostics.html#:~:text=Parameters%20that%20can,could%20be%20tuned.

I ran Prophet on your data and achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 112% using the base model with the raw values you provided. However, after converting the raw target values to natural logs, I improved the MAPE to 93%.