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facebookexperimental / Robyn

Robyn is an experimental, AI/ML-powered and open sourced Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) package from Meta Marketing Science. Our mission is to democratise modeling knowledge, inspire the industry through innovation, reduce human bias in the modeling process & build a strong open source marketing science community.
https://facebookexperimental.github.io/Robyn/
MIT License
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Why is Competitor Sales a Positive Contribution? #1073

Open nknauer opened 1 month ago

nknauer commented 1 month ago

Project Robyn

Describe issue

I am running the demo and see that in the response decomposition waterfall by predictor, competitor sales is the largest contribution. Why would competitor sales be the largest contribution, shouldn't it be negative?

Provide reproducible example

This is the input directly from the demo: InputCollect <- robyn_inputs( dt_input = dt_simulated_weekly, dt_holidays = dt_prophet_holidays, date_var = "DATE", # date format must be "2020-01-01" dep_var = "revenue", # there should be only one dependent variable dep_var_type = "revenue", # "revenue" (ROI) or "conversion" (CPA) prophet_vars = c("trend", "season", "holiday"), # "trend","season", "weekday" & "holiday" prophet_country = "DE", # input country code. Check: dt_prophet_holidays context_vars = c("competitor_sales_B", "events"), # e.g. competitors, discount, unemployment etc paid_media_spends = c("tv_S", "ooh_S", "print_S", "facebook_S", "search_S"), # mandatory input paid_media_vars = c("tv_S", "ooh_S", "print_S", "facebook_I", "search_clicks_P"), # mandatory. organic_vars = "newsletter", # marketing activity without media spend window_start = "2016-01-01", window_end = "2018-12-31", adstock = "geometric" # geometric, weibull_cdf or weibull_pdf. ) print(InputCollect) Screenshot 2024-10-10 at 5 17 05 PM

Borghis commented 1 month ago

I also have some variables like inflation rate and interest rate that logically have negative effect on the response, but in this case I think that the sign is based on the sign of the correlation that the variable has with the response.

jammalz commented 1 month ago

Probably this indicates that when competitors sell more, your company sells more too. This might be due to seasonality or trends in the market, for example.