Explainer RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways)

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RCP 2.6 - RCP 4.5 - RCP 6.0 - RCP 8.5 jsou označení emisních scénářů, které vyjadřují možná budoucí vývoje koncentrací skleníkových plynů v atmosféře.

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway
• Přehledový článek v Climate Change (2011) Representative Concentration Pathways> an Overview

Je potřeba přeložit graf a připravit něco jako slovníčkové heslo, protože se na ně budeme muset odkazzovat kdykoliv, kdy se budeme zaměřovat na budoucí vývoj.

Tedy úkoly jsou

• • připravit text
• • přeložit graf z wikipedie

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Slovníčkové heslo je hotovo. Teď by to chtělo vymyslet inforgafiku a vysvětlující text - vlastně by mělo jít o infografiku s názvem scénáře budoucího vývoje, která bude obsahovat RCP, související teplotu a pravděpodobné dopady (body zlomu, apod)

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Doplněn odkaz na přehledový článek. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z Nově má AR6 pracovat s více scénáři a nazývají je SSP...

[mukrop]

Přesunuto na wiki.

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Tohle je důležitá práce, na kterou sice teď nemáme zdroje, ale v budoucnu je to must have. Tedy znovu otevírám.

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https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/30/2007117117

Because future climate depends on future human behavior, which is inherently unpredictable, scenarios are used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures and to illustrate the consequences of policy choices. For the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report (AR5) four scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were developed. The RCP scenarios as used in global climate models use historical greenhouse gas emissions until 2005, and projected emissions subsequently. A widely used scenario and the most aggressive in assumed fossil fuel use, RCP8.5, by design has an additional 8.5 W/m2 radiative forcing by 2100. Recent comments in the scientific community (1, 2) as well as in magazine-style pieces and the gray literature argue that contemporary emissions forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) make it increasingly unlikely that RCP8.5 describes a plausible future climate outcome. RCP8.5 is characterized as extreme, alarmist, and “misleading” (1), with some commentators going so far as to dismiss any study using RCP8.5. This line of argumentation is not only regrettable, it is skewed.

The defining property of the RCP family of scenarios is radiative forcing. A radiative forcing is the additional amount of energy in Earth’s climate system, with each RCP having a prescribed increase by 2100 relative to preindustrial levels. For purposes of driving forward global climate simulations, a single emissions trajectory consistent with the specified radiative forcing was chosen for each RCP. RCP8.5 uses emissions at the 90th percentile level of baseline scenarios then available (3) and depicts “a relatively conservative business as usual case with low income, high population and high energy demand” (4). The “business as usual” descriptor for RCP8.5 has been used repeatedly, if somewhat inconsistently and controversially (1, 2, 5). Our discussion here, as well as in the broader literature on the usefulness of RCP8.5, centers on these chosen emissions trajectories.

In evaluating any RCP scenario, it is fundamental that scenarios are not predictions, which is why they are not associated with likelihoods (3). Rather, scenarios are used to present decision makers with the outcomes of as broad a range of plausible choices as possible, so as to inform their decisions. It is meaningless to characterize a scenario as “misleading”—that assumes that we know the true future and are deliberately predicting a different one. We should instead focus on how useful scenarios may be. Focusing solely on end-of-century outcomes is an inadequate way to evaluate the usefulness of a given RCP. For purposes of informing societal decisions, shorter time horizons are highly relevant, and it is important to have scenarios which are useful on those horizons. Looking at midcentury and sooner, RCP8.5 is clearly the most useful choice.

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RCP database: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about

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Sceptical science má beginners guide: https://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php

[jakub-zamouril]

Navrhuji tohle uzavřít a otevřít nový issue na SSPs.