floriandierickx / emission-budgets

visualising country-specific carbon budgets
https://emission-budgets.up.railway.app/
MIT License
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Net climate footprint rather than national #6

Open laem opened 4 years ago

laem commented 4 years ago

From what I undestrand, your data doesn't take into account net emissions, but only national emissions. For the citizen, it could be quite unfair. E.g. in France, our low emissions per capita is for the most due to the delocalization of our industry. Maybe worse : shale oil's emissions extraction are attributed to the United-States even if the oil is used for someone's car in Europe.

Obviously, neither is right, both should be provided.

Do you know about another set of data that we could use to get a final net footprint objective curve per citizen ?

This document gives data for the french situation (in french), but no budgets, juste vague "2t objectives" . đź”—


:fr: D'après ce que j'ai compris, ces calculs inspirés de l'article de realclimate ne prennent en compte que les émissions sur le territoire national. Ici en France, on est à ~5 tonnes / personnes. Mais c'est principalement parce que l'on a délocalisé notre industrie : les minitels de 2020, qu'on appelle des smartphones, sont fabriqués en Chine.

Sais-tu si l'on peut utiliser un autre jeu de données pour faire le calcul en empreinte climat nette ?

laem commented 4 years ago

Other question, about this mention in the original spreadsheet :

Country emissions, fossil fuel only! Data source: http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu
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Note: As I only have fossil emission data here, this will overestimate the budget reach for countries with important land use emissions!

This set of data would minimise the footprint of countries such as brazil, destroying their forests. But also other countries', in net accounting : a substantial part of the food of our cattle in France comes from brazilian soy that caused deforestation.

laem commented 4 years ago

Other question : from what I understand, methane emissions (e.g. cow burps) are not counted either. Would it be wrong to convert these methane emissions to CO2e, and then compare them to the IPPCC's 2.2 table's main carbon column ?

Edit : yes it would be wrong. The IPCC table states that these are included in other budgets.

laem commented 4 years ago

Actually, it might be possible to reproduce CO2e budgets, according to this sentence in the SR1.5 : emissions of non-CO2 forcers contribute an average additional warming of around 0.15°C relative to 2006–2015 at the time of net zero CO2 emissions, reducing the remaining carbon budget by roughly 320 GtCO2

The budget for 1.5° with 66% of chances would then be 740 instead of 420, and could be compared to e.g. the total climate footprint of a french citizen, ~11t/y.

floriandierickx commented 4 years ago

Hey @laem, sorry for the delay in replying, but thanks a lot for the suggestions !

1) related to net emissions ("consumption-based" rather than "production-based", the former being a more equitable estimation of emissions as they attribute all emissions to final consumption, and the latter used in international negotiations and national emission inventories) : I agree that the consumption-based emissions should be given as well. I did not include them in the simulation (to be able to retain a "globally consistent database" that adds up), but I think this database could be interesting to integrate: https://zenodo.org/record/3187310#.XvpGOC2w1yC. It provides all national estimates of consumption-based emissions from the major datasets (mainly based on input-output datasets from the system of national accounts, with data on trade between countries). I did a quick plot of the dataset for Belgium (https://twitter.com/FlorianDRX/status/1183895605015470080?s=20), it would be nice to see a version of France! If I have time (maybe this summer), I will try to integrate the numbers in the tool. But feel free to do so also if you want ! :p :))