frnsys / half_earth

Half-Earth Socialism: The Game, for Half-Earth Socialism (Verso 2022)
GNU Affero General Public License v3.0
39 stars 7 forks source link

Emissions on year-end summary don't match the history at the end of the game #297

Closed sgitkene closed 2 months ago

sgitkene commented 2 months ago

I think some of the projects' negative emissions are not being counted. I think e.g. DAC may be one of the culprits, as the large discrepancies start appearing with increasing levels of DAC. I attached the entire history too.

2022-2025

[2025] political_capital: 100 -> 4 emissions.as_gtco2eq: 51.579174 -> 54.981224 (seems correct)

2025-2030

[2030] political_capital: 4 -> 0 protected_land: 0.1 -> 0.13333333 emissions.as_gtco2eq: 54.981224 -> 55.31417 (first discrepancy)

[2035] (Forgot to sc) political_capital: 0 -> 8 protected_land: 0.13333333 -> 0.40416664 emissions.as_gtco2eq: 55.31417 -> 39.762833

2035-2040

[2040] political_capital: 8 -> 9 protected_land: 0.40416664 -> 0.56999993 emissions.as_gtco2eq: 39.762833 -> 22.85015 (discrepancy in the single digits and higher from here on out)

2040-2045

[2045] political_capital: 9 -> 189 emissions.as_gtco2eq: 22.85015 -> -0.6647185

2045-2050

[2050] political_capital: 189 -> 210 protected_land: 0.56999993 -> 0.61999995 emissions.as_gtco2eq: -0.6647185 -> -14.41661

2050-2055

[2055] political_capital: 210 -> 364 emissions.as_gtco2eq: -14.41661 -> -24.015253

HES Summary 2.txt

frnsys commented 2 months ago

thanks for the report. I've investigated a bit and have a lead about what could be going on, but hard to be sure right now.

Emissions results under a few different scenarios below...

to make things easier I tried a few runs where I removed the energy usage of DAC.

No DAC
2022=51.6
2025=55.6
2030=62.7
2035=70.1
2040=77.6

DAC, no upgrades
2022=51.6
2025=56.2
2030=63.9
2035=71.3
2040=78.8

DAC, no upgrades, removed DAC energy usage
2022=51.6
2025=54.9
2030=61.2
2035=68.6
2040=76.1

DAC, one upgrade, removed DAC energy usage
2022=51.6
2025=54.9
2030=61.2 Finished
2035=68.6 Upgraded
  then in planning: 67.1 (68.6 - 1.5)
2040=74.6

DAC, two upgrades, removed DAC energy usage
2022=51.6
2025=54.9
2030=61.2 Finished
2035=68.6 Upgraded
  then in planning: 67.1 (68.6 - 1.5)
2040=74.6 Upgraded
  then in planning: 73.1 (74.6 - 1.5)

The console output and the report/planning HUD numbers matched each time. In the last two example s(where I upgraded DAC) the report and console both report 68.6 and then after you go to the next planning screen, the HUD reports 67.1, I'm pretty sure this is just because the upgrade effect (an additional 1.5 emissions reduction) isn't taken into account until after the report.

Does that sound more or less like what might be happening on your end?

sgitkene commented 2 months ago

I did a run leaving out any projects that said to reduce ghg directly. The only one I took and kept upgrading is DAC. However, I don't think DAC is the culprit anymore. I noticed a discrepancy between the stats screen and the summaries and the console output. It seems a different value is taken at each point. I'm now just pretty certain that something else besides possibly DAC is wrong.

[2035] political_capital: 0 -> 6 protected_land: 0.1 -> 0.33750004 emissions.as_gtco2eq: 41.35248 -> 32.71087

2030-2035

The year end summary indicates 32.0 (0.7 difference from console)

2035-land

The stats screen has a wildly different number at 24.0Gt.

Not sure if it helps with anything but here the rest of the screenshots of that run as well as the full "history" summary and savegame (as text file exported from storage): run4.zip

sgitkene commented 2 months ago

when I do the same thing as you (no DAC) and just click ready every cycle, I get the following:

[2025] emissions.as_gtco2eq: 51.579174 -> 55.642757 [2030] emissions.as_gtco2eq: 55.642757 -> 64.04519 [2035] emissions.as_gtco2eq: 64.04519 -> 71.67728 (game over)

The values on the stats screen and reports all match up.

2022-2025 2022-emissions 2022-land 2025-2030 2025-emissions 2030-2035 2030-emissions
sgitkene commented 2 months ago

The discrepancies show up when changing the production mix:

2022-emissions

2022 stats.

2022-2025

transition 2022-2025 Console:

[2025]
emissions.as_gtco2eq: 51.579174 -> 55.642757
2025-emissions

2025 stats.

2025-2030

transition 2025-2030 Console:

[2030]
political_capital: 100 -> 74
emissions.as_gtco2eq: 55.642757 -> 109.67238
2030-emissions

2030 stats.

2030-2035

transition 2030-2035. Console:

[2035]
political_capital: 74 -> 50
emissions.as_gtco2eq: 109.67238 -> 136.01736

(Game over)

frnsys commented 2 months ago

I think this was due to process mix changes being applied after the report phase so they weren't properly reflected in the report. So this may be fixed now.

sgitkene commented 2 months ago

can't confirm fix. after a hard reload of the page I still get the discrepancies between stats screen and report:

2022-land 2022-2025

[2025] emissions.as_gtco2eq: 51.579174 -> 55.642757

Now console output and the report show the same, but the stats screen shows a different value:

2025-emissions

Stats show 43 Gt emissions.

Interestingly, the emission prediction from last cycle (39.6 Gt) was close to what the future stat screen would read.

In the following cycle, when staging no changes at all, I get numbers that match across the board, except now the console output picks the wrong number as the start:

2025-2030

emissions.as_gtco2eq: 55.642757 -> 48.55009

The console output reads 55.642757 which was what the console output from last cycle was.

2030-emissions

This time, the stats read the same as the report and console output for 2030.

sgitkene commented 2 months ago

Nevermind, the changes you mentioned probably aren't live, I am on a65f7ae

frnsys commented 2 months ago

Should be live now !

sgitkene commented 2 months ago

seems to work now 🥳